I had a great conversation with Anne Applebaum today on wars and autocratic decision-making that can lead to backfire. We talked about Russia’s weakness and loss of autonomy as a nation as a result of the war on Ukraine, and how Ukraine is providing an example of heroism and ingenuity to the world. Ukraine has revolutionized warfare (drones, urban warfare) and written a new chapter on the power of mass civilian resistance.
We also talked about the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the “oddities” of White House messaging around the conflict, to use Anne’s term. President Trump gave no justification for this war before starting it, and now seems to be searching around for the right messaging, test-driving talking points, after the fact.
One of these narratives involves an idée fixe of Trump: that he was the rightful winner of the 2020 election. Showing the incredible tenacity for lying and obsessive thinking that autocrats are known for, he will never let his idea go, and indeed made embracing and repeating this Big Lie into a requirement for GOP politicians to stay in good standing with him.
Sometimes he blames democratic trickery and “rigging” for the fact he had to leave the White House; other times he raises the issue of foreign interference. As I wrote in this recent essay, Trump has alternated between China and Venezuela as the culprits —it needs to be anyone but Russia— and now, post-military strike, he seems to be accusing Iran as well.
The Role of Fear, Insecurity, and Grievance
Anne and I also talked about the mindset of rulers who go to war and the relation between unpopularity and setbacks at home and the start of military actions. Entering into a war places a country in a “state of exception” that many leaders use to arrogate more powers to themselves, take away rights, and do what they have wanted to do anyway. That could mean states of emergency, suspending elections, or other authoritarian actions.
Let’s also keep an eye on the rhetoric of personalization that Trump is trying out to explain why this war was necessary for him. Iran not only supposedly deprived him of a win in the election, but also wanted to have him killed.
“I got him before he got me,” Trump said of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This personalized goal is also why there is no real plan for post-decapitation or regime change, as Anne also observed.
As I observed in my book Strongmen, fear is one of the biggest factors in driving authoritarians’ behavior. They will stop at nothing to feel safe, and since they have no concept of public welfare and consider everyone an asset to be used and discarded, they will easily enter into a military conflict without a long-term strategy, regardless of the casualties it causes.
Trump’s partner Benjamin Netanyahu thinks similarly. For him, being in a state of war is a way to avoid elections at home and processes of accountability for his corruption. First by prolonging the war on Gaza and now by egging Trump on to strike Iran, he too feels safer, even knowing that Iran would target Israel as retaliation and also strike regional powers Israel has trade and other relations with.
This is why even the former heads of Mossad, Shin Bet, and the Israeli military made a joint video last August to warn that Netanyahu’s escalations in Gaza and violations of cease-fires were making Israel less safe.
Trump, too, is setting into motion processes that will endanger national security and make Americans targets, even though Americans did not want this war and it had no Congressional approval or discussion among our elected representatives. But he doesn’t care, as long as he is personally safe. Even decisions to go to war are easy when you only think about the outcome for one person, no matter the chaos and instability and violence your actions cause for millions.
