Some comments to accompany the video of today’s terrific conversation with fellow historian Timothy Snyder. It was our first-ever conversation à deux and we will have more in the future.
We focused on the U.S. war on Iran and what it tells us about the Trump administration. We explored what it means to have a war launched not only without Congressional discussion or approval but also without a narrative— other than a theological one apparently being pushed by Holy Warriors, Hegseth included, at the Department of Defense. The Guardian has reported that troops have been told that this military action is designed to hasten the “end times” and bring about the return of Christ. This has prompted over 200 complaints from service members in all branches of the armed forces.
Whether it is a narrative of war as a sacrifice to save the nation; war as a means of “reuniting” a foreign population with its true homeland; war as avenging terrorist attacks; war as a means of acquiring living space for Aryans (Nazis) or gaining an empire (Fascists); or other classics, even governments that don’t depend on elections manufacture a narrative to justify their actions. The exceptions, of course, are military actions that require the element of surprise, such as coups or decapitation operations such as the recent one in Venezuela.
The narrative emptiness of this war presents a problem, not least with regard to the multiple American deaths and casualties it has already caused. It is not only unpopular from the start, but it has no moral, legal or any other justification or rationale other than seemingly doing the bidding of Benjamin Netanyahu, or the highly personalized prompt Trump provided: “I got him before he got me,” he said, speaking of the now-dead Supreme Leader Khameini and supposed Iran plots to assassinate him.
We also discussed the short attention span of the decision-makers, and the absence of professionalism now that the military has been purged of many expert advisors and those who remain are not listened to. Even as the White House announces a prolungation of the war for weeks to come, Trump may lose interest now that Khameini has been taught a lesson.
He was already talking about golden drapes and the future of his ballroom in a Medal of Honor ceremony that was supposed to update Americans about the war.
So here is a narrative for this war: it is pushing Trump further into the terrain of autocratic backfire. In my Feb. 1 New York Times essay, I wrote that war is a tempting exit strategy for autocrats who face problems at home, but it is one that often backfires on them.
The political scientist Barbara Walter makes a similiar point in a good piece on Iran as Trump’s “gamble for resurrection.” I will close with a quote from Strongmen on the outcome of such gambles: “almost all autocrats eventually lose the wager.”
