Welcome back to Lucid, and hello to all new subscribers. Our next Q&A will be held on Sunday, December 7, 8-9pmET. Paying subscribers will receive a link to register for the Zoom gathering at 5pmET that day. If you’d like to join these stimulating conversations, you can upgrade to paid or sign up as a paying subscriber here:
When the Leader No Longer Seems Infallible
Anand and I had a great talk yesterday about the cracks appearing within MAGA as the Epstein coverup news persists and the costs of this administration’s economic policies, incompetence, self-dealing, and chaos become harder to ignore. I believe that more people will come to understand that they have been deceived by Trump, who, in Anand’s memorable words, was “never the drainer, always the swamp.”
On that note, the very first Lucid essay, “Drain the Swamp,” which appeared on March 31, 2021, was about the durability of such deceptions. It discusses Mussolini, Putin, and Trump. The idea that the autocrat will save the nation by cleaning up corruption is one of the oldest authoritarian scams, and religious, media, political and other elites must work overtime to keep his personality cult intact as he is revealed as incompetent or thieving.
For hard-core MAGA, the realization that all is not as it seemed will be frightening, and the knowledge will be initially dismissed. Throughout 2026 we can look forward to redoubled efforts by pro-government propaganda outlets such as Fox to cast defectors and doubters in a negative light.
Here is my conversation with cult and undue influence expert Dr. Steve Hassan:
As Trump grows weaker, there will also be attempts by major regime stakeholders —the Project 2025 people, the tech billionaires, etc— to salvage things by shifting the base’s affections to Vance2028 —good luck with that!
Pay attention to Republican messaging about leaders in and outside of the party, and monitor how those people are being positioned with respect to MAGA, Trump, and Vance. Watch for more Erika Kirk-Vance together time as part of this charm offensive.
The Autocratic Idea of “Diplomacy” and Foreign Policy
Anand and I also talked about the Trump administration’s “foreign policy,” i.e. its plunder and autocrat bail-out operations, and why there is a renewed U.S. focus on Latin America.
In an autocracy, “diplomacy” and “international relations” take on new meanings, in keeping with an idea of governance as a vehicle for the leader’s personal enrichment, including through deals struck with other autocrats.
We also discussed how rulers such as Trump personalize policy. The disgraceful American conduct regarding supposed “negotiations” to “bring peace” between Russia and Ukraine is the latest example of an authoritarian dynamic I discuss in my book Strongmen. When autocrats are in power, cabinet officials can become less important than individuals from the private sector who populate the “inner sanctum” —a space where the things most important to autocrats happen, ideally outside of public and parliamentary purview.
The members of these charmed circles often include trusted associates “from the old days” (Trump has been friends with Steve Witkoff, his special envoy chosen for his pro-Russian views, for forty years, and Putin’s inner circle includes people who go back to his Saint Petersburg days). Inner sanctums also include family members (sons-in-law are often tasked with closing deals that support leader wealth creation) and oligarchs.
In November I wrote an essay which described the Witkoff-Putin “peace talks” as a charade — a cover for other business, which had to be conducted face-to-face. My essay was written before the Wall Street Journal’s revelations about this business: the so-called Ukraine-Russia “peace deal” is actually an enrichment scheme for Americans and a bail-out for failed-state Russia.
Anand and I both struck a hopeful note in observing that things are shifting and we should not discount the resilience of Americans and our institutions. U.S. media coverage regarding the Make Russia Great Again meetings is a case in point. In Turkey, Russia, Hungary, China, Iran, etc., this investigation would not have been published, and the inner sanctum would do its work mostly in secret.
Using the spaces and tools at our disposal, we can circulate our knowledge about how autocrats think and operate and what really motivates them. This allows us to resist them more effectively and help MAGA followers accept some painful truths.
