Happy, happy anniversary for giving us your insights and solidarity in protecting and supporting our democracy. It has been and continues to be essential and inspiring. Thank you.
Authoritarians love to manufacture menaces, which can then be feared and hated. This leads to the promotion of vengeance against this phantom enemy. The indentification of these outside enemies solidify the clan and bond them closer to their savior leader.
I'm so glad that I have joined this Substack. Brilliant essay today! Rough waters lie ahead as we traverse through this 'uncharted' territory in the United States. Trump is such a formidable foe of democracy, that the light and "lucidity" your essays provide make this period a bit easier to navigate and understand. Thank you and Happy Anniversary!
Your dedication to providing “Strongman” guidance for everyone. Even the ignoble poltroons who have supported his mortification, in spite of the miasma of intractable ordure in the wake, should be applauded! Thanks Ruth for all you do!!
Your piece is an excellent summation of so much of your book, which I am in the middle of right now.
In that regard, the very first thing I noticed about Drumpf's statement was the racist and anti-Semitic "dog whistles" - picked up in their entirety in Mr. DeSatan's statement; two wannabe "strongmen" engaging in typical denigrating behavior. (Drumpf went even further, into blatant dehumanizing, when he called Mr. Bragg an "animal" last week.)
I would add one thing here, and that is "patience." While we have seen (and been frustrated by) the slow way in which the wheels of justice turn, we need to remain patient, since a trial is unlikely until the end of this year (or the beginning of next year), and the Orange Mussolini may well be found not guilty. And even if he is convicted, he is unlikely to spend a single day in jail, since conviction even on the possible felony charge could end up in simple house arrest or other penalty.
But there are three other sets of charges in three potential indictments in two other jurisdictions. And it is statistically unlikely that he will avoid conviction in all of them. And the other potential charges all carry much higher risks for his personal liberty.
Still, he will continue to run for the presidency (there is nothing barring even a jailed felon from running for office), even though he cannot win a general election, absent broad chicanery on the State and/or federal levels. (Which is possible, but unlikely...so far.)
So...patience. And faith that the system will work (which it has been doing), and that he will be convicted on one or more charges in one or more jurisdictions and will be incarcerated at some point.
"You don't know what he's been charged with." Actually, we do. He has been charged with ~30 counts of misdemeanor business fraud. However, those are only the charges we know about; most legal experts say that there would have to be at least one felony charge involved as well: one or more of tax fraud, election fraud, witness tampering, or possibly even a RICO charge.
"...whether he will ever go to trial (I doubt it) or take a plea..." Yes, he could take a plea. But Trump is not the type of person to do that. He will try to have the case dismissed outright (summary dismissal), which will be rejected. After that, he is going to want to have his day in court. Keep in mind who we are talking about: a malignant narcissist who can't help himself. He wants the attention. He wants to be seen as "above the law." And he will do everything he can (even if it is self-defeating) to show that.
"...so you cannot predict whether or not he will go to prison." You seem to be agreeing with me here, unless you think he WILL (or might) go to prison. Very few people go to prison on the current charges; a former president is highly unlikely to. He probably wouldn't even go to prison on the potential Georgia charges. However, he is much more likely to go to prison on the classified documents case (particularly given obstruction of justice charges), and/or any potential Jan. 6-related charges.
"...While he is under indictment, the judge is likely to put him on house arrest, meaning that even if he still wants to run for reelection, he cannot campaign in person outside the state of NY. He will not be permitted to return to Mar A Lago, and if he didn't have a residence in NY, he'd have to go to jail. Even if the judge sets bail, he cannot leave NY." With respect, you have a very limited understanding of law. (I spent a dozen years at law firms.) The judge has wide discretion and could issue "house arrest" in Florida pending trial, or any of a dozen other possibilities. None would prevent Trump from continuing to run for office, through it could (but would not necessarily) limit his options in that regard.
"The federal charges, if he is indicted in the documents case, could put him in prison if the AG can prove more serious charges than merely possessing documents he shouldn't have had. They have to prove criminal intent, which might be impossible, but we don't know what they have on him." Actually, the Special Counsel has overt proof of obstruction of justice, and concomitant criminal intent. So they have Trump dead to rights on this one.
"I doubt he'd win in 2024 even without the charges against him..." I basically agree, but given his history, I believe it would be foolish to count him out.
"He and the GOP are just too stupid and extremist. Trump lost by 7.4 million votes in 2020, and I would bet that nobody who voted Democratic in that election will cross over and vote for him." True. His base is not large enough to win a general election (which is why he lost the popular vote twice). And I have long felt that the only way he can win in 2024 is through election chicanery at the State and federal levels - a possibility, to be certain, but not probable (yet).
Your point that it is statistically unlikely that TFG can avoid conviction on all three potential indictments was very uplifting for me! I'm very happy that you pointed that out, and I thank you.
I suppose they will work in shifts, taking turns being his cell mate, that we the taxpayers will be paying for. Impeachment conviction could have prevented this tax payer expense.
Who in Florida would execute or administer extradition requests? Why wouldn't we see that person or people resign in protest of Desantis's comment? Wouldn't they face liability themselves for helping Ron break the law? Would this be the State Police of Florida? Or the Florida A. G.'s office? Would the U.S. Marshalls be responsible for apprehension and transportation?
I smell made for TV drama like the White Bronco next week.
Doesn’t TFG always try to surprise us by doing the unthinkable? And hasn’t TFG set the stage last week?
US Marshall serves warrant for arrest to Secret Service at Mara Lago, the new Waco Compound. TV drama. Season 7, episode 1: the indictment. Episode 2: The Standoff @ Mara Lago Episode 3: The fugitive and chase scenes…and on and on with recycled reality TV scripts.
Whoohoo, two years. I'm so glad to be a member of Lucid. In this one essay about Trump's indictment, RGB sums up so much of what we study and talk about in Lucid. Its the authoritarian playbook applied in all its splendor. The 5 tools of rule with history as a reference; Corruption, propaganda, violence, machismo, and the myth of national renewal with cult leader victimology included. I wish the whole country could read how excellent and observant this piece is and have their eyes opened! But alas I fear most probably won't ...their eyes wide shut.
Ruth, you certainly were one of the first to expose Trump & his cult for what they are! All Americans should be appreciative of your work!
Happy, happy anniversary for giving us your insights and solidarity in protecting and supporting our democracy. It has been and continues to be essential and inspiring. Thank you.
Thank you Naima!
Also so awesome that Anand Giridharadas mentioned you in his substack today!
Bravo and congratulations Ruth! It is an honor to have been along for the ride since the beginning! Keep making us think!
Thank you Tom!
Thank you for laying this out so clearly and completely.
Does the R cult even see the irony of claiming others weaponization of government in their very statements that are weaponizing government?
Authoritarians love to manufacture menaces, which can then be feared and hated. This leads to the promotion of vengeance against this phantom enemy. The indentification of these outside enemies solidify the clan and bond them closer to their savior leader.
Happy Anniversary! We are so fortunate to have your insightful commentary. Thank you!
AMAZING post today! Thank you so much for these words of history’s truths.
I'm so glad that I have joined this Substack. Brilliant essay today! Rough waters lie ahead as we traverse through this 'uncharted' territory in the United States. Trump is such a formidable foe of democracy, that the light and "lucidity" your essays provide make this period a bit easier to navigate and understand. Thank you and Happy Anniversary!
Preach!
Bon Anniversaire Ruth!
Your dedication to providing “Strongman” guidance for everyone. Even the ignoble poltroons who have supported his mortification, in spite of the miasma of intractable ordure in the wake, should be applauded! Thanks Ruth for all you do!!
I remember getting my 1st thesaurus, too—congratulations, Patrick!
Thanks Hal, didn’t realize unctuous derps and the peerless in vacuous idiocy,trolled Ruth’s page, yet here we are!
Your piece is an excellent summation of so much of your book, which I am in the middle of right now.
In that regard, the very first thing I noticed about Drumpf's statement was the racist and anti-Semitic "dog whistles" - picked up in their entirety in Mr. DeSatan's statement; two wannabe "strongmen" engaging in typical denigrating behavior. (Drumpf went even further, into blatant dehumanizing, when he called Mr. Bragg an "animal" last week.)
I would add one thing here, and that is "patience." While we have seen (and been frustrated by) the slow way in which the wheels of justice turn, we need to remain patient, since a trial is unlikely until the end of this year (or the beginning of next year), and the Orange Mussolini may well be found not guilty. And even if he is convicted, he is unlikely to spend a single day in jail, since conviction even on the possible felony charge could end up in simple house arrest or other penalty.
But there are three other sets of charges in three potential indictments in two other jurisdictions. And it is statistically unlikely that he will avoid conviction in all of them. And the other potential charges all carry much higher risks for his personal liberty.
Still, he will continue to run for the presidency (there is nothing barring even a jailed felon from running for office), even though he cannot win a general election, absent broad chicanery on the State and/or federal levels. (Which is possible, but unlikely...so far.)
So...patience. And faith that the system will work (which it has been doing), and that he will be convicted on one or more charges in one or more jurisdictions and will be incarcerated at some point.
"You don't know what he's been charged with." Actually, we do. He has been charged with ~30 counts of misdemeanor business fraud. However, those are only the charges we know about; most legal experts say that there would have to be at least one felony charge involved as well: one or more of tax fraud, election fraud, witness tampering, or possibly even a RICO charge.
"...whether he will ever go to trial (I doubt it) or take a plea..." Yes, he could take a plea. But Trump is not the type of person to do that. He will try to have the case dismissed outright (summary dismissal), which will be rejected. After that, he is going to want to have his day in court. Keep in mind who we are talking about: a malignant narcissist who can't help himself. He wants the attention. He wants to be seen as "above the law." And he will do everything he can (even if it is self-defeating) to show that.
"...so you cannot predict whether or not he will go to prison." You seem to be agreeing with me here, unless you think he WILL (or might) go to prison. Very few people go to prison on the current charges; a former president is highly unlikely to. He probably wouldn't even go to prison on the potential Georgia charges. However, he is much more likely to go to prison on the classified documents case (particularly given obstruction of justice charges), and/or any potential Jan. 6-related charges.
"...While he is under indictment, the judge is likely to put him on house arrest, meaning that even if he still wants to run for reelection, he cannot campaign in person outside the state of NY. He will not be permitted to return to Mar A Lago, and if he didn't have a residence in NY, he'd have to go to jail. Even if the judge sets bail, he cannot leave NY." With respect, you have a very limited understanding of law. (I spent a dozen years at law firms.) The judge has wide discretion and could issue "house arrest" in Florida pending trial, or any of a dozen other possibilities. None would prevent Trump from continuing to run for office, through it could (but would not necessarily) limit his options in that regard.
"The federal charges, if he is indicted in the documents case, could put him in prison if the AG can prove more serious charges than merely possessing documents he shouldn't have had. They have to prove criminal intent, which might be impossible, but we don't know what they have on him." Actually, the Special Counsel has overt proof of obstruction of justice, and concomitant criminal intent. So they have Trump dead to rights on this one.
"I doubt he'd win in 2024 even without the charges against him..." I basically agree, but given his history, I believe it would be foolish to count him out.
"He and the GOP are just too stupid and extremist. Trump lost by 7.4 million votes in 2020, and I would bet that nobody who voted Democratic in that election will cross over and vote for him." True. His base is not large enough to win a general election (which is why he lost the popular vote twice). And I have long felt that the only way he can win in 2024 is through election chicanery at the State and federal levels - a possibility, to be certain, but not probable (yet).
:-)
Your point that it is statistically unlikely that TFG can avoid conviction on all three potential indictments was very uplifting for me! I'm very happy that you pointed that out, and I thank you.
You're welcome! (Although it appears that not everyone agrees with me....lol)
I recall an earlier comment on Lucid. It was: how is the Secret Service going to deal with Trump's jailing?
I suppose they will work in shifts, taking turns being his cell mate, that we the taxpayers will be paying for. Impeachment conviction could have prevented this tax payer expense.
Who in Florida would execute or administer extradition requests? Why wouldn't we see that person or people resign in protest of Desantis's comment? Wouldn't they face liability themselves for helping Ron break the law? Would this be the State Police of Florida? Or the Florida A. G.'s office? Would the U.S. Marshalls be responsible for apprehension and transportation?
I smell made for TV drama like the White Bronco next week.
Doesn’t TFG always try to surprise us by doing the unthinkable? And hasn’t TFG set the stage last week?
US Marshall serves warrant for arrest to Secret Service at Mara Lago, the new Waco Compound. TV drama. Season 7, episode 1: the indictment. Episode 2: The Standoff @ Mara Lago Episode 3: The fugitive and chase scenes…and on and on with recycled reality TV scripts.
Woohoo 🎉🎉🎉 Two years of kickassary. Congratulations. Here’s looking to the next.
The first rock down the mountain in the coming avalanche.
Happy Anniversary, Ruth.
Whoohoo, two years. I'm so glad to be a member of Lucid. In this one essay about Trump's indictment, RGB sums up so much of what we study and talk about in Lucid. Its the authoritarian playbook applied in all its splendor. The 5 tools of rule with history as a reference; Corruption, propaganda, violence, machismo, and the myth of national renewal with cult leader victimology included. I wish the whole country could read how excellent and observant this piece is and have their eyes opened! But alas I fear most probably won't ...their eyes wide shut.
Congratulations, Ruth!
In what lies ahead, as Americans, we must show patience and legal confidence in our system.
Relax and let the legal system work, as it was meant to do. Calm down! The wait is going to be a test and a long one.