Trump Indictment

And Lucid's second anniversary is today!

This is a special day for America. Yesterday, a grand jury in Manhattan indicted former President Donald Trump in connection with payments meant to silence Stormy Daniels from speaking out about their affair as the 2016 election neared. Italy, France, Israel, Peru, and dozens of other countries have prosecuted former and sitting heads of state, as this op-ed by Arick Wierson details, but America had never taken that step.

But of course, Trump was different than any other American president. As I've argued since 2016, Trump's goals as a candidate and as president were authoritarian, not democratic. He sought to subject the GOP to autocratic codes of loyalty and discipline, build a leader cult and a civilian army of extremists, make money off of public office, normalize racism and homophobia, and create an environment where violence and crime would be tolerated and rewarded. This would prepare Americans to support autocracy at home and alliances with illiberal forces abroad.

Corruption is always at the center of autocratic projects. Clouding minds with propaganda meant to disseminate hate and silence the inner voice of conscience prepares people to do the unthinkable.

Bringing the unthinkable into being, and getting people to act on behalf of the cult leader, is a strongman specialty. Trump is no exception.

"The essence of authoritarianism is getting away with crime. That's why this indictment is so important," I tweeted yesterday. It's why corruption was the subject of my very first Lucid essay, "Drain the Swamp," published two years ago today, which looked at how Trump follows Benito Mussolini and Vladimir Putin in his claims to modernize and clean up his country. “Drain the swamp" was a Fascist slogan.

Authoritarians arrange the institutions of government to protect them from exposure. To cite one current example, this is why Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces corruption charges, immediately launched a "judicial reform" upon returning to office.

Trump followed a century of illiberal leaders in using propaganda to turn the public against the press, prosecutors, investigators, judges, and anyone else with the ability to uncover his corruption or charge him or his allies with crimes.

Posing as the victim of those same groups ("the deep state," in Trump's formulation) is another authoritarian classic. Trump's advertisement of his coming indictment, his reported desire to appear in handcuffs during legal proceedings connected with that indictment, and the "WITCH HUNT" cards his campaign gave to followers to display for the media at last week's Waco, TX rally are part of this cult leader-as-victim strategy.

In the meantime, pressure and threat are used to silence individuals with knowledge of the leader’s corruption. "The less you remember, the better," Trump's thuggish White House "ethics" lawyer Stefan Passantino told his client Cassidy Hutchinson before her testimony to the House Jan. 6 Committee. Cue also Trump posting a photo of himself with a baseball bat next to a photo of Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, whose office was in charge of the indictment.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg at a press conference, New York, 2022. Mary Altaffer/AP

It is too early to know what will happen to Trump, but authoritarian history can guide us as we observe the actions and reactions of Trump and those who support him.

We have already seen the start of authoritarian rituals of expressing public loyalty to the cult leader. GOP political elites indebted to Trump have dutifully appeared on Fox and other disinformation channels. In the case of those who are strongly bonded to him, the prospect of their idol falling can bring on intense emotions, including fear. Senator Lindsey Graham appeared close to tears in his television appearance/loyalty display last night.

We have also seen the predictable swing of Fox back to defending Trump. I argued in a recent Lucid essay that Fox is not just a far-right disinformation machine but also the GOP's de facto propaganda arm. Whether the Murdochs personally like it or not, Trump is the front-runner for that party's Republican nomination.

Fox is also partnering with the GOP to cover up their joint support for the attempt to overthrow the 2020 election and pull off a coup on Jan. 6. There is far too much at stake for Fox --and too many other secrets that Trump, an expert blackmailer, can reveal--if Trump is neutralized as an active political contender. Closing ranks behind the cult leader is the result.

Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have a conflictual relationship, and we should see DeSantis's alarming statement that he will not extradite Trump less as a buddy-support move than as his attempt to use this situation to reinforce his extremist reputation. His antisemitic labeling of Bragg as a client of George Soros is also a clue. The freedom evoked here by the mini-Trump leader of Florida's "free state" is freedom from the rule of law and freedom to ignore the Constitution, which mandates that governors honor other states' extradition requests.  

While in the short-term Trump will milk this indictment to raise money and become more popular with his base, based on my research for Strongmen, prosecution is fundamental to showing a nation that the leader is not in fact above the law, not untouchable, not immortal nor a semi-deity. As I recount in my book, prosecution of Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi and Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet after they left office started the deflation of their personality cults and reputations.

Former prosecutor Andrew Weissmann frames it from a legal perspective. The indictment shows that "the teflon is off. It no longer is unthinkable and unheard of to hold any person, regardless of prior station in life, to account for their crimes. For those who thought this day would never come, the teflon is off Teflon Donald."

As I concluded in a 2022 Lucid essay, "the history of authoritarianism shows that appeasing bullies and not acting due to fear of possible future violence merely sets up the conditions for more violence. It allows the bully to feel empowered and righteous in his lawlessness, which triggers more feelings of omnipotence and grandiosity and more reckless actions."

This indictment matters because it asserts the power of the law to punish anyone. It also sends a statement that government officials will not be swayed by authoritarian threats. Right now, our democratic judicial system is working, and our free press can report on it.

I did not imagine in March 2021, when I called out Trump’s "drain the swamp" scam as a genre of authoritarian history, that I would write an essay exactly two years later about Trump's indictment. And yet this is why we must never give up hope in our institutions and our power to shape history. Remaining lucid in our thoughts and resolute in our intentions is part of that.