Welcome back to Lucid, and a big hello to all new subscribers. Mark your calendars for our next Q&A, Friday, Jan. 27, 1-2pmET. Paying subscribers will receive a link to register that morning. Our guest for the first half will be Terrell Jermaine Starr, expert on Ukraine and Russia. If you’d like to join us, you can convert your subscription to paid here:

Subscribe now

I am also excited to announce an event on Sunday, Jan. 29, 8-9pmET with Jared Yates Sexton. We will bring our newsletter subscribers together to discuss threats to democracy, resistance, and Jared’s new book, Midnight Kingdom: A History of Power, Paranoia, and the Coming Crisis. We’ll be taking questions ahead of time for this event. I’ll let you know more about it later in the week.

___________________________

"I follow my instincts, and I am never wrong," Fascist dictator Benito Mussolini boasted before Italy invaded Ethiopia in 1935. That war bankrupted the Italian state, but declaring the foundation of the Italian East African Empire increased Il Duce's popularity at home and further inflated his ego. Over the next years, he plunged Italy into one military conflict after another, finally joining World War Two in 1940 alongside Adolf Hitler, against the advice of his generals. Allied bombings of Italy started immediately and Italy lost its Empire one year later.

None of this fazed Mussolini. Even as Italian casualties mounted, Il Duce doubled down on his expansionism, desperate to secure his place in history as a conqueror. When the Allies landed in Sicily in 1943, his own Fascist Grand Council removed him from power and arrested him. Hitler rescued him and installed him as head of a Nazi puppet state in northern Italy, allowing his fantasies of grandeur to continue until Italian resistance fighters executed him in 1945.

Mussolini was the first of many authoritarian leaders who have taken reckless action to remain in office, with their hubris and megalomania leading them to pursue dreams of conquest and unlimited power. Even when their mistakes become evident, believing their own propaganda about their genius instincts and surrounding themselves with flatterers keeps them in a bubble, until they realize they are not infallible and untouchable after all. Then fear sets in and they become even more dangerous.

A rule of authoritarian history is that strongmen leaders will do anything to stay in office, starting wars or deepening their involvement in doomed conflicts. Political scientists call this phenomenon “gambling for resurrection,” and almost all autocrats lose the wager.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's genocidal war on Ukraine is one example. After 22 years in power, he has reached that state of isolation common among leaders who have exercised too much power for too long and make bad decisions that backfire on them. Putin is motivated by a desire to secure his place in history as the leader who revived a version of the Soviet empire, so the more he is humiliated and his military exposed as ineffectual, the more he will pose a threat to the world.

Just as Mussolini did during World War Two, Putin has reportedly ramped up his involvement in making military decisions, with disastrous results. Almost a year into the war, he has set processes in motion that could lead to his downfall and even to the breakup of the Russian Federation.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is another example. Beijing was likely taken by surprise by the protests that erupted at the end of 2022 in response to dehumanizing state lockdowns meant to achieve Xi's grandiose goal of "zero covid." The abrupt end to such lockdowns after the biggest demonstrations since 1989's Tiananmen Square has led to a huge surge of the disease. The reversal of policy can be read as a panic move by a regime feeling uncharacteristically vulnerable.

Xi omnipresent and omnipotent in the strongman manner. Reuters: Aly Song

This situation promises nothing good for the stability of the international order. As Taiwanese Admiral Lee Hsi-min and Eric Lee observe, Xi feels more than ever that he needs to claim control of Taiwan to "secure an achievement on a scale that would fix his legacy alongside those of supreme leaders such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping."

And Chinese political exile Cai Xia notes the combination of Xi's incompetence in handling the pandemic, China's economic downturn, and the absurd puffing up of Xi's personality cult "have shattered [Xi's] image as a hero of everyday people...Trapped in an echo chamber and desperately seeking redemption, he may even do something catastrophically ill advised, such as attack Taiwan."

If history is any indication, if Xi continues to feel threatened he may well take that "ill advised" step, regardless of the consequences. "Gambling for resurrection" is a strongman specialty, and we had best be prepared.

Share

Leave a comment

Lucid

From Mussolini to Putin and Xi, "Gambling for…