Peter Zeihan's observations (available on YouTube) on the problems China faces per demographics, energy and economic disaster are worth the time it takes to check them out.
My God these are dark times. They all use the exact same playbook that has never worked for any kind of meaningful time and is so transparent. Yet, over and over again, we have these megalomaniacal tyrants who think they can take over the world. And unfortunately not holding Putin to account for war crimes against humanity is emboldening other terrible leaders such as Xi.
The US "talks" of the war crimes in Ukraine - and yes, they are OBVIOUS and HORRIBLE, widespread. Is Biden and our State Dept. REALLY addressing them appropriately, like with ACTION???? Or not? Because as an American citizen, I REALLY want to know what the US is planning to DO. Not what we think of it - from the Fourth Estate. Let's go BIG - or go home. I'm angry.
I'm not sure what you expect the US govt to do about the war crimes. The Russians have a trump card if we push them too far. “Go big or go home” is not a great attitude when going big could result in a nuclear apocalypse.
I'm angry, too, but I don't know how we punish the Russians without catastrophic results.
Having one of the biggest land-wise countries on earth an authoritarian one as rigid as China - that's a much worse virus than Covid that they are literally spreading. Our Republican party has certainly caught this virus in a big way. Holding their May 2022 CPAC in Hungary with strongman leader Orban speaking - how much LOUDER do they want to get about fascism being their absolute goal?
I fear that Chinese society is everyone's future. Not exactly the same in every country, of course — they'll all be authoritarian with social monitoring and no privacy, but some will be straight dictatorships, some will be corporatist states, some will clothe their government in the trappings of democracy....
I feel like the world I know is speeding toward a cliff, and no one knows how to stop it.
Bo, thank you so much for pointing us to the work of the geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan especially with regards to the problems China faces including demography and energy. Peter Zeihan says “Instead of cheaper better faster we are rapidly transiting into a world that is pricier, worse and slower – and he says our present world is essentially breaking apart.”
Zeihan says that globalization created a world where we could go anywhere at anytime and interface with any entity to buy goods to ship to any market without needing a military escort which was NOT the case before WWII when the world was “Imperial.” And then Zeihan continues to say that the U.S. created globalization and patrolled the oceans so we could continue with our global security policies and build and strengthen Alliances that were needed for the “Cold War” world! But over time the “Cold War” eventually ended and that was 30 years ago and Zeihan is emphasizing that during the last seven U.S. Presidential elections, the candidate who was less interested in globalization was the winning candidate including the last shift from Trump to Biden! Interesting and I will explore this more.
I am presently reading the work of Economic Journalist Rana Foroohar involving “De-Globalization” in her new book that has recently come out entitled “Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post-Global World” (Oct 2022). In her book she focuses on globalization as we know it which she also says it is over and where she says the U.S. should be focusing on investing in our own manufacturing in the short run which will ultimately bring back more secure supply chains and manufacturing employment in the U.S. in the long run.
Rana Foroohar says that the 5 Rules for the Post-Global World That Business Leaders Must Know are the following:
[Summary from Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan]
Demographic factor changes in the U.S. and China (and other countries really) have had people moving off farms and into the cities where they participate in manufacturing and service employment. When workers move into cities, they tend to have fewer children because families no longer need a great deal of labor within the family environments. As this process continued for a number of generations, we have had demographic shifts in the developed world especially resulting in a smaller younger generation with a larger older generation. Thus, the entire consumption and production cycles that have been viewed as normal and usual in the recent past are no longer mathematically possible according to Zeihan, and he maintains that we have currently hit the tipping point this decade!
Because of these consumption shifts, we now have global systems that cost lots of money, time and effort to patrol and make safe within our “cold war” mindset and environment. Furthermore, security payback for the Americans who had been doing all the patrolling and securing of the oceans/areas have also been eroding for the last 30 years with the end of the cold war.
Part of what made the globalization idea work is that the U.S. would sublimate their own industries to encourage growth abroad (in China) by the U.S. designing for their own consumption the desired products, and then the countries abroad would build them. Problems ultimately developed in that some of the countries doing the building became more powerful than they would have been in a de-globalized world, says Peter Zeihan, and China was at the top of that list. Thus, China started to have its own ideas on how the world should function according to Zeihan.
Peter Zeihan maintains that it will not happen that the U.S. will continue to subsidize a Chinese expansion over the long haul with the food and energy imports they get from the U.S.. Zeihan is saying that both the Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. as well as President Biden are now turning against the very idea of a global and open system in the current world today.
De-Globalization, China and Supply Chains (part 3)
[Some From Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan]
[Some From Economics Journalist Rana Foroohar]
The present consumption and production patterns of the last forty years have kept inflation low and the cost of living low and stable because of high levels of cheap manufacturing goods being produced by China, says Peter Zeihan. This pattern, however, cost the U.S. many manufacturing jobs.
The high point for globalization has been 1985-2015 according to Zeihan. There has been record economic growth throughout the world, and because of significant competitive and value added advantages for U.S. goods there have been even larger gains for the U.S. in terms of economic growth. Everything is now changing with the changing demographic profiles throughout the world. According to Zeihan there are not a lot of young people doing the consuming so the globalization process has become a product dumping project for all the foreign firms to sell in the U.S.. The baby boomer generation continued to have children while the rest of the world did not to the same degree. The Millennials (and/or Gen Ys) are presently at the high point of their consumption levels and the rest of the world’s consumption is slimmer.
So how are consumption and production patterns that are behind economic growth ultimately going to change in the U.S. and the rest of the world?
“Path to Prosperity in a Post Global World”
Supply Chains
[From Economics Journalist Rana Foroohar]
Rana Foroohar explains that we are entering, as she terms it “quite slowly” a new era namely a post neoliberal era or a de-globalization era that she describes as part of the “supply chain” as well as what is happening to it and within it. She also importantly attempts to discuss supply chains within the notion of climate change, and the best part of the book for me, is within the Inflation Reduction Act (Climate Bill) as it stands now.
Foroohar focuses on this notion of a “collective resilience” and our needs to enhance our collective supply chains and harden them so they will be resilient in the face of climate change factors and climate change provisions that are not in place yet but may be put in place in the future. The Inflation Reduction Act (Climate Bill) does not actually have a price on carbon but it is getting closer to it and creates some mechanisms for rewards and penalties within the bill. Our older “cold war” global systems generally involved cheap capital (money), labor and energy, but all of those systems are now ending says Foroohar who further emphasizes that China is also finished with the old system as well.
Relating to the development of these new supply chain systems, there has been criticism involving “export bans” on dual use chip technology from which the U.S. is getting criticism, but in reality the U.S. is just one player in this entire technology system and the U.S. is not even a major player at that. And because of that, the U.S. is only reacting to a Chinese policy that has been in place for a long period of time within these 5-year plan policies. Thus, China also wants to be free of U.S. technology in the next few years as well says Foroohar.
Anyway, this evolving series of plans appears to be moving in a positive direction.
“Rachel Maddow researches and tells the story of a little known story of an incredibly important moment in American history – she calls it “Ultra.” “Ultra” is a story of a right-wing plot to violently overthrow the U.S. Government that was aided and abetted by the U.S. Congress NOT in January of 2021 but in January of 1940. According to Rachel our unprecedented political movement is not unprecedented at all. America has wrestled with Fascism before and came much closer to ending democracy than we did last year. So we talked about the threats of the past and today how social media and the internet has changed the nature of those threats and why it is so damned hard to hold together a liberal democracy of more than 300 million people.”
The plot in 1933 by Prescott Bush to install a fascist regime is more known than the one you speak about. The wealth class was tired of FDR and planned a coup that almost happened. Our rich businessmen wanted a cartel economic system similar to what Hitler had, replete with oligopolies. The coup plotters could care less about democracy, just as we see today.
Yes, that is what Rachel Maddow is saying as well and I think I remember reading some time ago that she has a PhD in political science! Anyway, I took several undergraduate sociology courses with a very activist "socialist" (as she always told us) professor and she NEVER EVER NOT EVER talked about fascism, in fact, I remember her telling us many times that Lucille Ball (as in Ricky Ricardo, Ethel Mertz, Fred Mertz, and Little Ricky LOL) was an unwavering socialist during that time period as were many others! That was why I brought it up in our discussions here but it may require more digging and really that is what Rachel Maddow is saying happened to her exploration in the documentary.
The part of Rachel Maddow's film that she says is actually "heartening" to her, and should really be heartening for all of us, is that the 1940 attempted fascist insurrection was much more organized and much more nearly successful, but still in the end it didn't happen. So that brings us hope in that while holding a 300 million person liberal democracy together is extremely difficult, successfully causing an insurrection to happen is also extremely difficult!
The fact that capitalism has its roots in feudalism, creates an easy transition back to that system, especially when our businesses are organized with a feudal structure. Successful businessmen are steeped in the authoritarian business model, and so it is a natural urge for them to have our political system match that in which they see in business. Their love of fascism is quite understandable. They will push for authoritarianism in this country for years to come.
Having spent some time in Taiwan, I saw how different the people are there, compared with China. I spoke with several people about the cultural differences. All had a sense of being Taiwanese and most felt that Taiwan should be independent. They have their own flag, their own currency and their own leader. They like their capitalist democracy. Taiwan has never been controlled by communist China and yet Xi feels it is his territory. Xi seems to be in the imperialism mode and seems to be slipping deeper into the strongman dictatorship role. I suspect Xi has some type of mental disorder where he is overwhelmed by his grandiose self image.
**The U.S. Federal Budget Deficit fell to $1.4 trillion for fiscal year 2022 (just ended Sept 30)!!!
**This was the largest one-year drop in U.S. History and a plunge of “HALF” from a year earlier!!!!
**The U.S. Budget Deficit will shrink by another $250 billion over the next decade given Medicare’s ability to negotiate lower drug prices now!!!!
**Outlays for Fiscal year 2022 (just ended Sept 30) fell by a record $550 billion (or 8%) from last year!!!
[The Republicans voted against the deficit reduction and our democracy! What??]
Go BLUE!!!
Go BLUE!!!
Go Democracy!!!
“Walt Whitman is considered the greatest poet of American democracy. A faith in the inherent dignity and nobility of the common man is the very root and basis of democracy. In his view all men and women are equal and all professions are equally honorable.”
I think the rise in authoritaianism we are currently expieriencing is due to technology advancements and the uses of Havana Syndrome type weapons. They can do a lot more than inflict concussions.
Peter Zeihan's observations (available on YouTube) on the problems China faces per demographics, energy and economic disaster are worth the time it takes to check them out.
My God these are dark times. They all use the exact same playbook that has never worked for any kind of meaningful time and is so transparent. Yet, over and over again, we have these megalomaniacal tyrants who think they can take over the world. And unfortunately not holding Putin to account for war crimes against humanity is emboldening other terrible leaders such as Xi.
The US "talks" of the war crimes in Ukraine - and yes, they are OBVIOUS and HORRIBLE, widespread. Is Biden and our State Dept. REALLY addressing them appropriately, like with ACTION???? Or not? Because as an American citizen, I REALLY want to know what the US is planning to DO. Not what we think of it - from the Fourth Estate. Let's go BIG - or go home. I'm angry.
I'm not sure what you expect the US govt to do about the war crimes. The Russians have a trump card if we push them too far. “Go big or go home” is not a great attitude when going big could result in a nuclear apocalypse.
I'm angry, too, but I don't know how we punish the Russians without catastrophic results.
Having one of the biggest land-wise countries on earth an authoritarian one as rigid as China - that's a much worse virus than Covid that they are literally spreading. Our Republican party has certainly caught this virus in a big way. Holding their May 2022 CPAC in Hungary with strongman leader Orban speaking - how much LOUDER do they want to get about fascism being their absolute goal?
How much louder? Gunshots louder
I guess so. BUT THEY ARE REALLY GOING TO PISS ME OFF THEN!
World realignment is interesting. I hope we can continue to contain the global shots. Midterms will decide a lot.
Fascism is the new heroin. Once addicted, people can't shake it.
I fear that Chinese society is everyone's future. Not exactly the same in every country, of course — they'll all be authoritarian with social monitoring and no privacy, but some will be straight dictatorships, some will be corporatist states, some will clothe their government in the trappings of democracy....
I feel like the world I know is speeding toward a cliff, and no one knows how to stop it.
De-Globalization and China
Bo, thank you so much for pointing us to the work of the geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan especially with regards to the problems China faces including demography and energy. Peter Zeihan says “Instead of cheaper better faster we are rapidly transiting into a world that is pricier, worse and slower – and he says our present world is essentially breaking apart.”
Zeihan says that globalization created a world where we could go anywhere at anytime and interface with any entity to buy goods to ship to any market without needing a military escort which was NOT the case before WWII when the world was “Imperial.” And then Zeihan continues to say that the U.S. created globalization and patrolled the oceans so we could continue with our global security policies and build and strengthen Alliances that were needed for the “Cold War” world! But over time the “Cold War” eventually ended and that was 30 years ago and Zeihan is emphasizing that during the last seven U.S. Presidential elections, the candidate who was less interested in globalization was the winning candidate including the last shift from Trump to Biden! Interesting and I will explore this more.
I am presently reading the work of Economic Journalist Rana Foroohar involving “De-Globalization” in her new book that has recently come out entitled “Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post-Global World” (Oct 2022). In her book she focuses on globalization as we know it which she also says it is over and where she says the U.S. should be focusing on investing in our own manufacturing in the short run which will ultimately bring back more secure supply chains and manufacturing employment in the U.S. in the long run.
Rana Foroohar says that the 5 Rules for the Post-Global World That Business Leaders Must Know are the following:
1. Globalization isn’t ending wholesale, it’s transforming.
2. De-globalization comes with challenges but also great opportunities.
3. There is no getting around the fact that a de-globalizing world will also be a more inflationary one, at least in the short-term.
4. Technology could help buffer the inflationary impact of a de-globalizing world.
5. Labor will have more power relative to capital.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/5-rules-post-global-world-business-leaders-must-know-rana-foroohar?trk=public_post
I will be exploring all of this further in the days to come. Thanks, Bo!
De-Globalization and China (part 2)
[Summary from Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan]
Demographic factor changes in the U.S. and China (and other countries really) have had people moving off farms and into the cities where they participate in manufacturing and service employment. When workers move into cities, they tend to have fewer children because families no longer need a great deal of labor within the family environments. As this process continued for a number of generations, we have had demographic shifts in the developed world especially resulting in a smaller younger generation with a larger older generation. Thus, the entire consumption and production cycles that have been viewed as normal and usual in the recent past are no longer mathematically possible according to Zeihan, and he maintains that we have currently hit the tipping point this decade!
Because of these consumption shifts, we now have global systems that cost lots of money, time and effort to patrol and make safe within our “cold war” mindset and environment. Furthermore, security payback for the Americans who had been doing all the patrolling and securing of the oceans/areas have also been eroding for the last 30 years with the end of the cold war.
Part of what made the globalization idea work is that the U.S. would sublimate their own industries to encourage growth abroad (in China) by the U.S. designing for their own consumption the desired products, and then the countries abroad would build them. Problems ultimately developed in that some of the countries doing the building became more powerful than they would have been in a de-globalized world, says Peter Zeihan, and China was at the top of that list. Thus, China started to have its own ideas on how the world should function according to Zeihan.
Peter Zeihan maintains that it will not happen that the U.S. will continue to subsidize a Chinese expansion over the long haul with the food and energy imports they get from the U.S.. Zeihan is saying that both the Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. as well as President Biden are now turning against the very idea of a global and open system in the current world today.
De-Globalization, China and Supply Chains (part 3)
[Some From Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan]
[Some From Economics Journalist Rana Foroohar]
The present consumption and production patterns of the last forty years have kept inflation low and the cost of living low and stable because of high levels of cheap manufacturing goods being produced by China, says Peter Zeihan. This pattern, however, cost the U.S. many manufacturing jobs.
The high point for globalization has been 1985-2015 according to Zeihan. There has been record economic growth throughout the world, and because of significant competitive and value added advantages for U.S. goods there have been even larger gains for the U.S. in terms of economic growth. Everything is now changing with the changing demographic profiles throughout the world. According to Zeihan there are not a lot of young people doing the consuming so the globalization process has become a product dumping project for all the foreign firms to sell in the U.S.. The baby boomer generation continued to have children while the rest of the world did not to the same degree. The Millennials (and/or Gen Ys) are presently at the high point of their consumption levels and the rest of the world’s consumption is slimmer.
So how are consumption and production patterns that are behind economic growth ultimately going to change in the U.S. and the rest of the world?
“Path to Prosperity in a Post Global World”
Supply Chains
[From Economics Journalist Rana Foroohar]
Rana Foroohar explains that we are entering, as she terms it “quite slowly” a new era namely a post neoliberal era or a de-globalization era that she describes as part of the “supply chain” as well as what is happening to it and within it. She also importantly attempts to discuss supply chains within the notion of climate change, and the best part of the book for me, is within the Inflation Reduction Act (Climate Bill) as it stands now.
Foroohar focuses on this notion of a “collective resilience” and our needs to enhance our collective supply chains and harden them so they will be resilient in the face of climate change factors and climate change provisions that are not in place yet but may be put in place in the future. The Inflation Reduction Act (Climate Bill) does not actually have a price on carbon but it is getting closer to it and creates some mechanisms for rewards and penalties within the bill. Our older “cold war” global systems generally involved cheap capital (money), labor and energy, but all of those systems are now ending says Foroohar who further emphasizes that China is also finished with the old system as well.
Relating to the development of these new supply chain systems, there has been criticism involving “export bans” on dual use chip technology from which the U.S. is getting criticism, but in reality the U.S. is just one player in this entire technology system and the U.S. is not even a major player at that. And because of that, the U.S. is only reacting to a Chinese policy that has been in place for a long period of time within these 5-year plan policies. Thus, China also wants to be free of U.S. technology in the next few years as well says Foroohar.
Anyway, this evolving series of plans appears to be moving in a positive direction.
Pre-Globalization, Pre WWII (prologue)
[Rachel Maddow Explains Our Fight Against Fascism (Past and Present)
Offline with Jon Favreau] Oct 16, 2022]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQKPe5xu0x0
“Rachel Maddow researches and tells the story of a little known story of an incredibly important moment in American history – she calls it “Ultra.” “Ultra” is a story of a right-wing plot to violently overthrow the U.S. Government that was aided and abetted by the U.S. Congress NOT in January of 2021 but in January of 1940. According to Rachel our unprecedented political movement is not unprecedented at all. America has wrestled with Fascism before and came much closer to ending democracy than we did last year. So we talked about the threats of the past and today how social media and the internet has changed the nature of those threats and why it is so damned hard to hold together a liberal democracy of more than 300 million people.”
The plot in 1933 by Prescott Bush to install a fascist regime is more known than the one you speak about. The wealth class was tired of FDR and planned a coup that almost happened. Our rich businessmen wanted a cartel economic system similar to what Hitler had, replete with oligopolies. The coup plotters could care less about democracy, just as we see today.
Yes, that is what Rachel Maddow is saying as well and I think I remember reading some time ago that she has a PhD in political science! Anyway, I took several undergraduate sociology courses with a very activist "socialist" (as she always told us) professor and she NEVER EVER NOT EVER talked about fascism, in fact, I remember her telling us many times that Lucille Ball (as in Ricky Ricardo, Ethel Mertz, Fred Mertz, and Little Ricky LOL) was an unwavering socialist during that time period as were many others! That was why I brought it up in our discussions here but it may require more digging and really that is what Rachel Maddow is saying happened to her exploration in the documentary.
The part of Rachel Maddow's film that she says is actually "heartening" to her, and should really be heartening for all of us, is that the 1940 attempted fascist insurrection was much more organized and much more nearly successful, but still in the end it didn't happen. So that brings us hope in that while holding a 300 million person liberal democracy together is extremely difficult, successfully causing an insurrection to happen is also extremely difficult!
The fact that capitalism has its roots in feudalism, creates an easy transition back to that system, especially when our businesses are organized with a feudal structure. Successful businessmen are steeped in the authoritarian business model, and so it is a natural urge for them to have our political system match that in which they see in business. Their love of fascism is quite understandable. They will push for authoritarianism in this country for years to come.
The cartoon really visually shows the threading of this internationally. The oblique brotherhood of despots, meglo-maniacs. A virus.
Having spent some time in Taiwan, I saw how different the people are there, compared with China. I spoke with several people about the cultural differences. All had a sense of being Taiwanese and most felt that Taiwan should be independent. They have their own flag, their own currency and their own leader. They like their capitalist democracy. Taiwan has never been controlled by communist China and yet Xi feels it is his territory. Xi seems to be in the imperialism mode and seems to be slipping deeper into the strongman dictatorship role. I suspect Xi has some type of mental disorder where he is overwhelmed by his grandiose self image.
The same thoughts have been occurring to me as well!
A Win for America and our Democracy!!!!!
**The U.S. Federal Budget Deficit fell to $1.4 trillion for fiscal year 2022 (just ended Sept 30)!!!
**This was the largest one-year drop in U.S. History and a plunge of “HALF” from a year earlier!!!!
**The U.S. Budget Deficit will shrink by another $250 billion over the next decade given Medicare’s ability to negotiate lower drug prices now!!!!
**Outlays for Fiscal year 2022 (just ended Sept 30) fell by a record $550 billion (or 8%) from last year!!!
[The Republicans voted against the deficit reduction and our democracy! What??]
Go BLUE!!!
Go BLUE!!!
Go Democracy!!!
“Walt Whitman is considered the greatest poet of American democracy. A faith in the inherent dignity and nobility of the common man is the very root and basis of democracy. In his view all men and women are equal and all professions are equally honorable.”
I think the rise in authoritaianism we are currently expieriencing is due to technology advancements and the uses of Havana Syndrome type weapons. They can do a lot more than inflict concussions.