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Raf Wugalter's avatar

Not just gerrymandering. That affects Congressional districts. The problem in the presidentials is the Electoral College, which gives too much power to small white states and allows presidential candidates to win with way fewer popular votes than their adversary. I think some statisticians concluded that if 50,000 voters in key swing states had voted R rather than D, Trump could still have won in 2020 despite having millions upon millions fewer votes than Biden got. That argument is summarized in this article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/18/how-2020-election-was-closer-than-2016/

SandyG's avatar

Yep. We all must help Biden defeat Trump.

Steve Rasmussen's avatar

One would have thought that after a proto-fascist sociopath won POTUS in 2016 that the Electoral College would be abandoned.

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Jul 31, 2023
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Steve Rasmussen's avatar

Abandoned by those wanting to preserve what's left of our democracy. The GOP loves the Electoral College because it allows them to cheat. The road to fascism is paved with treachery.

Charlie Austin's avatar

The Electoral College needs to go.

Raf Wugalter's avatar

The US is ripe for quite a few constitutional amendments, actually. But they are very unlikely to occur. Abortion, gun rights, freedom of religion, election of presidents, Supreme Court, police misconduct, voting rights, administration of federal elections -- new rules on this and more are sorely needed but probably won't happen anytime soon.

Charlie Austin's avatar

You're right, unfortunately.

SandyG's avatar

What matters, Mary, is his popularity in the swing states, not nationally, because of our Electoral College. Candidates don't win by the popular vote. 2016 taught me that. According to a recent poll of swing states, "Biden would narrowly beat Trump overall in the 2024 election when voters are given a choice of just the president (45 percent) and Trump (44 percent)" (https://www.newsweek.com/trump-biden-poll-swing-states-2024-1810725#:~:text=An%20Echelon%20Insights%20survey%20of,said%20they%20would%20back%20Biden.). That's a very slim margin. He COULD beat Biden. That's why we should fear him.

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SandyG's avatar

Why are you sorry that you think Trump will lose?

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Jul 31, 2023
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SandyG's avatar

I didn't understand what you were saying and I wanted to.

WILLIAM CASH's avatar

The danger is that if he's the republican nominee, he will be close. If the economy totters just before the election, people will vote for a change, no matter how terrible that change is. America is not an educated public and can be easily led.

Raf Wugalter's avatar

Actually, education is the big dividing line in America. Many Americans are quite well educated. Trump, however, has said out loud that he loves the LESS educated voters!

Robert Leyland's avatar

You ask, maybe rhetorically and/or disingenuously: “Why should we fear this fat old crook?”

Some closet members of the fascist GOP, media and Dem Party, seem eager to trivialize, or pretend to underestimate, the threat posed by DJT. The object is to persuade us to drop our guard ; we might even not bother to vote. In martial arts, practitioners are taught never to underestimate the opponent.

Fear is contraindicated; it tends to undermine confidence and effectiveness. Our opponent will likely perceive that we’re afraid and use our insecurity to its advantage.

Overconfidence is also inappropriate. Without fear, we must accurately assess the fascist enemy and recognize it will do us harm; if and/or when given the opportunity. We often lose fear when our loved ones are threatened. Love of country, motherland or adopted land, can be a source of courage. What I’ve said applies also to non-violence resistance.

Rather than the ‘fat old crook’ adjectives, I suggest assessing Trump realistically and that he and his corrupt party/cult be taken dead seriously. We must take nonviolent action as if our lives depended on it; it does. It’s irrelevant whether he’s a “fat old and crook.” It is imperative that we recognize that he is a fascist, and be aware of what fascists do once in power; including, but not limited to genocide and environmental plunder, e.g. ecocide, to say the least.

We must also remember some in the fascist GOP self-disclose, but others do not. We must consider most opponents worthy of engaging, especially if their propaganda reaches others. Demagoguery is often persuasive by skilled, trained practitioners, hence they should be challenged and exposed. Trump is a skilled and well-trained practitioner.

A difficult concept: Respect the enemy; when we do we’re less likely to take anything for granted. We fight when there’s no other choice. We have many choices.

Let’s not forget, Trump was president for 4 years when most every one thought he was a loser. In my view, Hillary Clinton, underestimated Trump due to her uncontrollable hubris.

Let’s also not forget, he has always been one step ahead of the sheriff; for decades. He’s a shrewd con man.

We must hold accountable all those who aided and abetted Trump. Justice delayed is justice denied.

Sandy's avatar

I’ve it seems like forever been warning that underestimating his propaganda skills has been our undoing...

Michel Venghiattis's avatar

We can only hope that he’ll choke on his Kentucky Fried Chicken……..

SandyG's avatar

Funny, but not true. We can make sure he's not reelected.

Michel Venghiattis's avatar

I completely agree, and I hope that you are correct that “we can make sure he’s not reelected” it’s not completely clear to me that he won’t , be despite our best efforts……

SandyG's avatar

Yes, we don't know the outcome. All political pundits to-date say it's a 50/50 race. Even if we give it our best efforts between now and Nov. 5, 2024, Trump could win. But you must make the effort, regardless of the outcome, I think.

Randy Southerland's avatar

“…we don't know the outcome.” This is absolutely correct. No matter how crazy or extreme the Republicans have become, they are still flourishing with control of the U.S. House and 28 state legislatures.

Winning a majority of the presidential vote isn’t enough. It has to be a super majority to overcome the archaic and inequitable electoral college.

So yes, assuming that Trump can be easily defeated is a dangerous idea.

Roger M. Moery's avatar

Feels like it is too late.

Raf Wugalter's avatar

Well, we don't quite know what electoral effect the indictments and any proceedings against Trump will have if he is the Republican nominee. Perhaps it will stir enough independents, and a small portion of Republicans, to vote for Biden out of a desire for stability and a concern for national security. But the idea that this could be a close call is horrendous, and does show that Trump is competent at being an authoritarian. By the way, I think conservatives will try to manipulate the system any way they can to achieve an Electoral College victory with far fewer votes than Biden, with as many Congressional seats as possible. That includes spoiler parties and spoiler candidates. Heck, if allowed, they'll even try to run people with the same name as Congressional candidates, if that can confuse 1% of voters in a district where the results are expected to be very close.

SandyG's avatar

Agree it's not too late. If he's defeated in '24, we still have a chance that this movement will dissolve, eventually. But we don't know enough now whether he or Biden will win. In the meantime, we all must be active in supporting Biden's campaign in the swing states where the race will be determined.

What am I doing? I'm supporting his campaign with a small, monthly donation. I live in a blue state but I have family near WI, one of the swing states, and I plan to canvass for Biden there next summer. You can donate here: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ads-gs-dd-bvfsearchgop-jun2023?refcode=om2023_ads_gs_230630_exmdonate_dd_us_all_actblue&gclid=CjwKCAjwlJimBhAsEiwA1hrp5oU_9Du9FWw4B6R9P29pe8d3qT_nZjBfEncrJ4YV91aZEZ22GWJwLhoC79AQAvD_BwE.

Steven L Whysel's avatar

It’s never too late. History has too many examples of tyrants being sidelined or worse.

Gordon's avatar

Ruth, what an astute but very frightening essay, - because it rings so true. I’m a retired dentist, and I opine on some social media outlets as a “fighter of truth decay” (a term I picked up from an Obama interview). Trump is a Rasputin or a Pied Piper, and his superb ability to spin his web of lies along ANY topic has also made him messianic. I heard one of the Trump supporters in Iowa say: “First there’s God, then there’s Trump”. What a frightening world of complete idiots, sycophants, and blind followers who cannot think for themselves. God forbid Trump ever gets near the White-House again.

Raf Wugalter's avatar

Anyone who's interested in authoritarianism should watch German period dramas that cover the 1920s and 1930s, like Babylon Berlin. One of the great actors in that series, Lars Eidinger, also stars in a Holocaust movie called Persian Lessons. In a recent interview, he opined that Trump is not the problem -- it's the many people willing to go along with him, just as many Germans were happy about the Nazis getting and holding power. But that's an unpopular view among many people, who are way too prepared to let voters off the hook and blame everything on politicians.

SandyG's avatar

Absolutely agree it's the MAGA peeps who responded to Trump's lies. He's a con man. They are the marks. There's no con without the mark.

I don't know those people who insist it's Trump or the R politicians. Show them Bandy X. Lee's article on "The 'Shared Psychosis' of Donald Trump and His Loyalists" (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-shared-psychosis-of-donald-trump-and-his-loyalists/). It shows they're on the hook.

Raf Wugalter's avatar

It's certainly useful to look at the psychological processes, etc. But I feel one should not lose sight of the fact that a lot of these people are racist, sexist, anti-gay, gun-loving Christofascists, and were that before Trump. Many of them even oppose social policies that help people like them, because the policies also help minority groups they dislike. People like that are not nice people. They oppose much of what makes a modern democracy desirable, safe and decent. I feel it reduces their personal responsibility and agency to think of them too much as "marks."

Steve Rasmussen's avatar

Yes, Trump followers seem to be those burdened by vices like anger, fear, bigotry, violence and vengeance. Once Trump came along, with all his vices, they found their hero. The worst thing that can happen to any nation is to have a president/role model be a sociopath like Trump. This normalizes all those vices throughout society, which we have seen. Virtues now become the enemy of these people.

SandyG's avatar

Did you read the Dr. Lee article? It's pretty clear to me that their being racist, sexist, anti-gay, gun-loving Christofascists is part of their mental illness that binds them to Trump.

And I don't mean to reduce their personal responsibility by calling them marks. I finished my comment with "their on the hook."

Steve Rasmussen's avatar

It's estimated that there are at least 10 million sociopaths/psychopaths (antisocial personality disorder) in the US, so we know how they will vote. They have no conscience nor empathy.

SandyG's avatar

Would be good to know what percentage of them actually bother to vote.

Susan Linehan's avatar

Good article, though by now the points it makes are blatantly obvious. Overall, I think the delusion that has been most lasting, and most successfully manipulated in the years since the article was written, is the delusion of shared victimhood. tRump has utterly destroyed the old GOP emphasis on "personal responsibility" as a virtue. He uses the whole Deep State routine to capture those who need to blame someone, anyone else for their own failings. In many disruptions (say divorce) the blame for the breakdown is almost always shared, but there are those who simply cannot admit to their own role. (I would except cases of actual spousal abuse, but those true victims actually often come to realize that their failure to escape earlier, for whatever reason, was an aspect of even that disruption.)

The real hold of trump has been, from that first ride down the elevator, the way has given permission to his supporters to be their darkest selves. Somewhere deep many of those must realize how dark those selves are, but add the idea that "someone else has caused it" and a cult is in the making.

WILLIAM CASH's avatar

I'm watching a series about how Hitler and the Nazis won over the people in Germany. It didn't happen overnight. They didn't control the media when they started but they very systematically, step by step, did it with symbols, speeches, spectacles and outrageous promises.

Raf Wugalter's avatar

Tragically, it's not all that hard to do. Making things up is easy, and if you can make something up that taps into a nerve, and repeat it often, you have a real chance of making it stick. Ideally, citizens in democracies should be "inoculated" against innuendo, false accusations and wrong generalizations. They should have a pre-existing aversion to it.

WILLIAM CASH's avatar

They realized the message had to be simple, had to be repeated endlessly and had to address something hurting them.

S B  Lewis's avatar

The George Orwell Club has many applicants. President Trump heads the Admissions Committee.

Gene Jones's avatar

Every MAGA GOP enabler needs to be turned from office. This will be a big step toward saving our democracy.

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Jul 30, 2023
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Raf Wugalter's avatar

Awful, isn't it. The most we can hope for, is Trump support fraying at the edges -- slowly lessening thanks to D messaging and developments in the criminal cases against him.

SandyG's avatar

He frayed at the edges in 2020. Biden won the swing states by just 43,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Those voters were less than 1 % of all voters in their respective states. They were Independents and suburban voters. Just a little more fraying and Biden wins! With all the bad legal news Trump is getting, I think that is entirely possible.

But don't just hope. Get active in supporting Biden. See https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ads-gs-dd-bvfsearchgop-jun2023?refcode=om2023_ads_gs_230630_exmdonate_dd_us_all_actblue&gclid=CjwKCAjwlJimBhAsEiwA1hrp5oU_9Du9FWw4B6R9P29pe8d3qT_nZjBfEncrJ4YV91aZEZ22GWJwLhoC79AQAvD_BwE.

Eileen W.'s avatar

It is the GOP enablers that really get me angry. They KNOW who and what he is. They are not cult followers. They support and protect him for one thing - party politics! They are willing to vote for a madman for power. They are the enemy!

Steve Rasmussen's avatar

Most of Trump's followers that I've spoken with, reject the fact that he is a fascist and a sociopath. They're living an illusion.

Raf Wugalter's avatar

The 14th Amendment, Section 3, should have been invoked a lot earlier and more often in the courts as a way of expelling and disqualifying federal politicians who took an oath to the Constitution and yet sought to undo the results of the 2020 election.

Teri's avatar

Terrifying. How do we snap them out of it?!

Steven L Whysel's avatar

It may be too late to snap those already in the cult but not too late to convince those sitting on the fence of the horrors that await if he and his acolytes are elected

Raf Wugalter's avatar

IMO, we can't. The most we can hope for is a small and gradual reduction in support over the coming year. If something better than that ever becomes possible, Democrats should certainly jump on it, but I don't see it so far.

Kevin's avatar

Yes, Trump definitely has agency being a capable showman. It raises one question though. What agency do his followers have in this process? What makes them susceptible to his lies and permit them to ignore his many trangressions? What is interesting is that when I meet these people, they seem perfectly normal and can be actually kind and helpful. But I sense that fear drives them down the rabbit hole, and that was really triggered by the pandemic. "Fear is the parent of cruelty," Bertrand Russell noted.

We are also a deeply materialistic culture that essentially values winning, and winning wealth and power. But most of us don't win, and to see someone get on a stage and falsely claim without shame that he is a "winner" can give some people the relief of their private shame they have that they may be a "loser."

Raf Wugalter's avatar

I agree that all that stuff is in play.

Kate Takahashi's avatar

The question burning in me is what exactly separates people like Liz Cheney/Adam K. from the rest of Congress? I know many GOP in Congress DO NOT believe the Big Lie & wish he'd just go away. Why can't more speak out? Is it JUST fear of losing an election (and the corresponding power)? Losing one's "tribe"?

Raf Wugalter's avatar

A person's morality is pretty rotten if they care about power more than getting rid of leaders who are liars AND fascists. Many Republican politicians are deeply immoral people, Truly sickening individuals.

Kate Takahashi's avatar

Okay. I hear that and I see that, but maybe it's a reflection of my naivete or wishful thinking that my tendency is to view the majority of folks as being good people.

I've never seen such a huge swath of cowardice in one group.

Raf Wugalter's avatar

In many cases in ordinary life, it's probably best to be kind even to people who are a bit yucky, because this might eventually get them to rethink their prejudices at some point in the future.

Steven L Whysel's avatar

Yes, the fear of losing an election and the largesse that comes with the job

SandyG's avatar

Yes. For Lyndsey Graham, he wants to be at the table. That's more important than anything. Apparently, he'll be a nothing nobody if he's not at the table. See Will Saletan's podcast, "The Corruption of Lindsey Graham": https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/ep-1-the-corruption-of-lindsey-graham-2/.

Steve Rasmussen's avatar

Liz Cheney/Adam K have a conscience and also wisdom. Many in the GOP are lacking one or both.

Raf Wugalter's avatar

Indeed. I knew as soon as they came forward that they would not be re-electable.

Steve Rasmussen's avatar

In a culture of lies, the truth becomes a traitor.

Christina Ann Nawada's avatar

Ruth, did you see Ali Velshi interviewing Michael Cohen this morning? Cohen said Trump actually keeps a copy of Mein Kamph on his side table! Trump’s increasingly double-down behavior lately may indicate that he’s been really digging into it! I pray to God when Jack E. Smith throws down all those huge, drastic other indictments, things that none of us have even heard about, that Trump’s acolytes will open their eyes and understand that he is a lying grifter, cares about no one but himself, and would throw any one under the bus! I hope they would realize what a white supremacist, Christi-fascist, authoritarian is and could turn our Democracy into a dictatorship, where they have no right to question him, and “pooph”! Our freedoms are gone! 🙏🏼

SandyG's avatar

His acolytes will never understand that. They will find ways to discount any legal verdicts against him. But if Biden beats him in '24, our freedoms will still be intact. His acolytes are only about 30% of the electorate. Trump can be beaten.

SandyG's avatar

And you know this how? or perhaps it's your belief? Sure sounds like a statement of fact.

Charlie Austin's avatar

I guess I'm an optimist. There are more of us than there are of them. They'll lose in places that they never thought that they would. They've managed to piss a lot of people off.

SandyG's avatar

Nationally, yes, Charlie, there are more of us. But our system for electing presidents doesn't rely on a national vote. The winner is determined by the swing states. The red states will go red and the blue, blue.

So, as long as they've pissed off Independents and suburban voters in the swing states, he'll lose.

Also, better to be an optimist, cause you keep trying, somene once said.

Charlie Austin's avatar

They have. Women will make the GOP pay!!

Raf Wugalter's avatar

Abortion is one of the factors that could do this. 63-68% of people support abortion rights to a considerable degree, so the Rs are outside the mainstream with their extremism.

Steve Rasmussen's avatar

Once Jack Smith tightens the scews on Trump, America will see what a sociopath is really like. Sociopaths hide who they are in society until they have no other choice. Then the mask of quasi-normalcy comes off and we'll see the seething madman that he really is. The worst dictators have been sociopaths or psychopaths.

Art's avatar

“19 Principals of Propaganda” Joseph Goebbels. I think he stole it from Bernays. Trump knows them and acts on them by heart.

Gary Kloner's avatar

Remember his famous words "I could shoot someone on 5th Ave and not lose any votes". Once you're in the cult, love and irrationality govern your mind set. The worse things get for the cult leader the more loyalists double down in their commitment and devotion to the leader. Its how they collectively reduce cognitive dissonance.

Gary Kloner's avatar

Just the other day while eating lunch with my friend, he asked why do so many people fall for Trump? And I said Trump is a genius at propaganda and is a charismatic demagogue. And I went on to say that I thought he is as good as any in history. Then I also said he is also quite stupid because he creates so many unnecessary legal problems for himself. Remember I said, he's paranoid, a serial criminal, a psychopath and malignant narcissist. He can't help himself. These compulsions are beyond his control. He never stops, he never rests. In some ways he's like a hoarder always grasping with bear claws, always taking, stealing and collecting whatever he can wherever he can 24/7.

After 8 or so years, he has simultaneously built up a mountain of legal liabilities side by side a mountain of millions of loyal cult followers who will walk over hot coals for him. The whole thing is quite extraordinary and unprecedented in American history. But actually typical for authoritarians.

These very personality traits that got him to where he is (a powerful charismatic, fascistic cult leader) are the very same very personality qualities that are the causing his eventual downfall and ruin, I believe.

Its binary. Good vs. evil. Democracy vs. autocracy. Truth vs. lies.

SandyG's avatar

Really well said. And I agree it is unprecedented in our history. There certainly have been demogogues in our history - Huey Long, Father Coughlin, and Joe McCarthy - but none have ever been elected to the presidency. I'm doing everything I can to see that he is defeated in '24.

Gary Kloner's avatar

None have ever been elected President and of course none of the three ever tried to run for a second time (Cleveland did) and then literally threaten to destroy 240 years of American democracy.

Bless you Sandy for doing all you can to defeat him!

Steve Rasmussen's avatar

Binary indeed. Democracy virtues vs. authoritarian vices.

Fastball Fredo's avatar

Ruth, once again you have laid out the path to authoritarianism. I must agree with your assertion that Donald is a master propagandist, and I will add he is a master at playing the victim to draw more into his white victimhood. Yes these are difficult times however we must prevail, we are faced with a choice.... fight for democracy and the Republic or go down the path of authoritarianism and dictatorship... this is not trivia, it’s reality here and now.

SandyG's avatar

Yep, that's the choice.

Steven L Whysel's avatar

So Ruth, is it not time to start discussing the tactics that are required to convince those tottering on the fence from falling into Trump’s trap?

Using words that define the words totalitarian and Fascist were needed but now what is needed is to clearly paint the picture of what freedoms will be lost, what the loss of an impartial Justice department will mean and how the closing of independent news outlets and making the FBI a puppet agency will negatively affect us.

Making the Supreme Court of the US more of a joke than it already is would be guaranteed with a Trump win.

Let’s now “paint a picture “ that will open the eyes and minds of those not yet enraptured by Orange Messiah.

SandyG's avatar

Yes, we need a clear and truthful - not propagandistic - picture of what he could do, what he's already said he wants to do.

Steve Rasmussen's avatar

Yes, the consequences of fascist rule need to be explained. How fascism self destructed in Italy;- how Mussolini was killed by his own people; why he was so hated in the end; why Hitler's own people tried to assassinate him, etc, etc.

The MAGA voters do not even accept that Trump is a fascist, so nothing will change them. So yes, just those tottering on the fence can be convinced that Trump sells fascist madness.