Information that dovetails with this latest post from Ruth: Lucid’s own, Heidi Siegmund Cuda interviews Ukrainian correspondent Zarina Zabrisky in yesterday’s RadPod (YouTube), and Zarina reports in yesterday’s Byline Times “The Wagner ‘Musicians’ and Circus Tanks” ... access free
Yes. Heidi, with her anti-disinformation warriors, Jim Stewartson and HiFi, have been broadcasting incredible work thru RadPod the last couple of years (Heidi at other sites since 2016) !!! When first listening 2 years ago, they seemed pretty ragged ... but after a while, you realize, they are reporting from the front lines of the non-kinetic war zones, and they are taking a break on RadPod together from the actual fighting , to report the latest battles raging. Amazing, courageous work!!
Last weekend left the world with many questions, no answers. Verify everything. Believe nothing. If something doesn’t make sense, it’s because we don’t have all the facts at the time. Great write up, thanks Ruth.
Love your comments today. My thoughts are that the Russian people have absolutely no concept of what democracy means, always being at the mercy of authoritarians - the czars for four hundred years or more, Stalin and the Soviets, now Putin. They want someone to think for them and "lead" then, however badly they are treated. There have never been enough of the population to establish any type of democratic culture, so whatever happens to Putin will more than likely be followed by another authoritarian figure supported by the Russian Orthodox Church, which is a very strong support for any authoritarian regime.
“Whatever Prigozhin's actual aims were in making his move (former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Koyrev's reminder to "believe nothing Putin or Prigozhin tell you" bears repeating),”
And I agree with this counsel as do those in the US watching the situation.
Tonight, Baltic Countries asking for more NATO presence on border with Belarus. The Baltics know, more than anyone, not to trust the lies or publicity circus of Putin, Prizoghin and Lukashenko. This whole Dramatic production is not over. Great post, thanks.
Thanks so much Ruth, for sharing your unrivaled expertise on the Strongman playbook! On the one hand, it's horrifying to watch Trump and Putin predictably play out their cards, but your work gives me odd comfort by better understanding the history, helping me to at least feel less vulnerable. I have a better sense of what direction things are going/may go and that knowledge helps me feel more empowered. Keep up the great work!
Yes, Barry, I also greatly value Ruth’s Big Picture perspective which creates greater clarity .... and just as important, reminds us, that we are not powerless, and here’s how our ancestors resisted tyranny in the past, and how our sisters and brothers are doing so, now.
It gives me strength and comfort when I think of our ancestors. "They're the guardians of us and we're the guardians of their legacy." -- President Joe Biden, May 30, 2021
Yes, indeed, I always seem to need Ruth's (and geo-strategist Peter Zeihan's) immeasurable "big picture" beacons of light to help guide me as an economist with a strong/broad social science framework/instinct -- to nudge and prompt me! I'm trying to examine more "strategic" (long-run) rather than "tactical" (short-run) factors within this current experience/process that can possibly serve as a guide (although they may very well influence each other). Still working.....
Diane thanks for pulling out those concepts of threads for thought i.e. strategic/ long-run and the tactical/ short-fun factors. Problems are so complex they are like a prism, each angle can be valuable.
As Art was saying, the Baltic Countries are asking for more NATO forces on the border with Belarus, and he says the “Baltics know, more than anyone, not to trust the lies or publicity circus of Putin, Prizoghin and Lukashenko.” [Today the President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda announced that he arrived in Kyiv ahead of the Vilnius Summit with the main message: "Ukraine's place is in NATO!"]
Also, the Ukrainians are rightfully secretive in their current offensive strategic plans, but as Ruth writes, “letting Prigozhin live peacefully in Belarus, even if he is used in some fashion for the cause of defeating Ukraine, would be an exception to authoritarian history and out of keeping with Putin's character.” Which seems likely to be happening.
Peter Zeihan provided some insights yesterday on the progress of the Ukrainian counter-offensive on the frontlines particularly on the “Zaporizhzhia Front.” The focus of the Ukrainian counter-offensive has been to find a weakness along the Zaporizhzhia Front to breakthrough and then make their way to the Sea of Azov where they (the Ukrainians) can isolate the entire Southeastern front and Crimea! If the Ukrainians can achieve this, there would no longer be a land bridge between Russia and Crimea for supplies and materials, and the Ukrainians would be able to target the “Kerch Strait Bridge” directly!
In terms of what the Ukrainians are up against in their counter-offensive strategy, there are defensive lines of “dragon's teeth” that were constructed in Oct 2022 under the Wagner Group along the Southeastern front. Dragon teeth defenses, I have learned, are a type of fortification from the German “Drachezahne” which are square and pyramidal shaped anti-tank obstacles of reinforced concrete first used in WWII. However, the dragon’s teeth are only one part of the Russian defenses in Southeastern Kherson Oblast which also includes minefields, anti-tank ditches, and trenches. Many Belarus firms have supplied dragon’s teeth for the Russians.
Anyway, within the current Ukrainian counter-offensive the Ukrainians haven’t been able to get past the minefields, and then after that the second line of defensive that includes the dragon’s teeth and trenches. The Ukrainians are still actively looking for weaknesses within the Zaporizhzhia Front to enable them to breakthrough. But now Peter Zeihan said yesterday that there has been shift within the Ukrainian strategy allowing them to target their missiles on “ammunition dumps” rather than just the “command and control systems.” [Note: “An ammunition dump, ammunition supply point (ASP), ammunition handling area (AHA) or ammunition depot is a military storage facility for live ammunition and explosives.”]
Peter Zeihan says that this is significant as it is an indication that the Ukrainians are getting to the second phase of their counter-offensive strategy operations. When you get to that phase you (the Ukrainians) are ensuring that the Russians can’t get meaningful supplies to the front!
I wish more citizens appreciated historical perspectives. I don't think we be this deep into the problem, if more people sought out this type of historical knowledge. Thank you Ruth for all these deep dives so we can try to share more broadly, in our communities. Support public education, libraries and free speech & print.
Thank you, Ruth! Wonderful commentary on the current situation with your brilliant insights into Putin’s
power. I believe this challenge to Russia’s stability has brought him very close to the brink of losing it all. He is finally running out of escapes.
Too soon and unclear to speculate
on how his power will change: coup, abdication, illness or death, the world will have to wait and see.
Hmmmmm….. perhaps Putin’s multibillion dollar Palace, complete with underground hockey stadium and gold toilet bowl brushes- that has been the cause of major dissatisfaction and
protests by the people of Russia will become the new “Disneyland of Siberia”.
Oh well! A bit of macabre humor! Hope Ruth can give us some insights into an emerging future leader of the Russian presidency. Or maybe it’s time for a “Russian Spring” to occur. (Remember the Arab Spring of years past?)
His fall could not come quick enough, and couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. Having said that, who would take over? Another Putin? Or someone worse? A new, slicker version of Joe Stalin, who will bring back the military uniform and Jack boots, all designed by top Paris fashion designers for modern take on authoritarian ruler fashion?Someone smarter, stronger, faster, the 6 million ruble man? One thing is for certain this whole invasion of Ukraine is his Putin’s own disaster, and if it is his undoing, he did it to himself. Should he make it through this, he will not live forever, something that happens to us all. With Russia, it is all ways the worst is yet to come, and you can never trust them, the Government is always up to no good.
Here is to hoping as the goons fight over the throne, some better leadership can somehow emerge. If there is going to be a period of jockeying and infighting among factions, perhaps such a transition can register some dissent that would push reforms? Its hard to see how liberal revolution occurs without piercing the information monopoly. I fear the West is letting Putin dictate our messaging in Central Asia or lack of it, even though Russia has not been shy about tinkering within our information ecosystem.
This is our golden opportunity to take informational warfare to Russia, imo. - EuroKremlin 2024 or 2025 would be the best possible outcome. The proof is in the pudding - liberal Ukraine is out punching autocratic, hallowed out Russia - liberality is more effective, efficient and secure. The Russian people should hear about it.
As was just the case, someone like Prigozhin will have to be the spear that pierces Putin's propaganda created aura of omnipotence. No doubt recent events have altered perceptions of Putin. The worst thing that can happen to a strongman is to be seen as weak. If and when another attack or threat comes, it will most likely be from elite elements within the military apparatus. In the meantime, a smart, calculated and paranoid, Putin will crack down hard domestically and abroad. As with all dictators and strongmen, Putin will learn sooner or later, the mandate from heaven is not forever.
Another great article. I think that Lukashenko made a big mistake by agreeing to allow Prighoshin refuge in Belarus. What's to stop him from getting rid of Lukashenko and taking control of Belarus? That would really make things interesting.
Can Prighoshin trust Lukashenko, who is Putin's puppet? If I'm Prighoshin in Lukashenko's Belarus, I will be looking over my my shoulder all the time. Can it be long until someone tries to take me out or make me disappear. Will he be allowed to roam free protected by his Wagner army inside Belarus?
Putin and Prigozin’s are old friends from St Oetersberg. I think Prigozin was trying to help Putin by challenging the defense minister and generals to get them out of the way. There could be more friction among these three camps, the military, the mercenary, and the old KGB/FSB.
I see Wager as this amped up Russian Mafia used by Putin’s FSB/old guard KGB. For decades the political establishment in Russia relied on the Russian Mafia to do their dirty work inside and outside Russia. On one level, Wager is modeled after BLACKWATER, a ‘professional’ security force. This was necessary for the larger roles outside the shrinking Iron Curtain, and in Ukraine, Syria, and Africa, maybe it’s a way to keep Belarus in the sphere because Lusashenko’s health is failing. The Russians can’t afford an uprising in Belarus like what had happened in Ukraine. These are just my own speculation. Or maybe Prigozin is just an idiot gangster naively thinking he could actually depose a Defense Minister on his own?
I was struck by the strong similarity of the 2013 quote from Putin that you provided and Trump’s inaugural speech. It's like they shared a speechwriter!
What I worry about now, is who would step into Putin’s place ? It seems likely that chaos would ensue, and who then would take responsibility for all the massive amounts of nuclear weapons . It seems unlikely that the Oligarchs would want to shoe in Navalny……
Oligarchs are Putin’s handpicked trustees. They won’t turn to Navalny. There has never been a succession plan in Russia in its history, so eventually it’s going to get messy.
Thank you Ruth for this insightful essay. The gaming terms 'playbook', 'party plays their hand', 'the odds are good' helps me visualize concepts easier.
Information that dovetails with this latest post from Ruth: Lucid’s own, Heidi Siegmund Cuda interviews Ukrainian correspondent Zarina Zabrisky in yesterday’s RadPod (YouTube), and Zarina reports in yesterday’s Byline Times “The Wagner ‘Musicians’ and Circus Tanks” ... access free
Love Heidi.
RadPod is awesome! Im working my way through their back catalog as I follow the current episodes.
Me too. Additional great background info.
Yes. Heidi, with her anti-disinformation warriors, Jim Stewartson and HiFi, have been broadcasting incredible work thru RadPod the last couple of years (Heidi at other sites since 2016) !!! When first listening 2 years ago, they seemed pretty ragged ... but after a while, you realize, they are reporting from the front lines of the non-kinetic war zones, and they are taking a break on RadPod together from the actual fighting , to report the latest battles raging. Amazing, courageous work!!
Last weekend left the world with many questions, no answers. Verify everything. Believe nothing. If something doesn’t make sense, it’s because we don’t have all the facts at the time. Great write up, thanks Ruth.
The Axis of Evil, Pride, greed and power.
Indeed. Pride, greed, power and psychopathy.
Agree and good to keep the psychopathy word right out there too. It's a lot / or little to unravel.
Terrell Jermaine Starr’s latest in BLACK DIPLOMATS is yesterday’s “WTF is going on in Russia?”
Love your comments today. My thoughts are that the Russian people have absolutely no concept of what democracy means, always being at the mercy of authoritarians - the czars for four hundred years or more, Stalin and the Soviets, now Putin. They want someone to think for them and "lead" then, however badly they are treated. There have never been enough of the population to establish any type of democratic culture, so whatever happens to Putin will more than likely be followed by another authoritarian figure supported by the Russian Orthodox Church, which is a very strong support for any authoritarian regime.
“Whatever Prigozhin's actual aims were in making his move (former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Koyrev's reminder to "believe nothing Putin or Prigozhin tell you" bears repeating),”
And I agree with this counsel as do those in the US watching the situation.
Tonight, Baltic Countries asking for more NATO presence on border with Belarus. The Baltics know, more than anyone, not to trust the lies or publicity circus of Putin, Prizoghin and Lukashenko. This whole Dramatic production is not over. Great post, thanks.
A wave of drama hope it stabilizes as quickly as it erupted.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-border-service-refutes-claims-on-belarus-wagner-camps/
Where are they. OSINT can’t locate.
Thanks so much Ruth, for sharing your unrivaled expertise on the Strongman playbook! On the one hand, it's horrifying to watch Trump and Putin predictably play out their cards, but your work gives me odd comfort by better understanding the history, helping me to at least feel less vulnerable. I have a better sense of what direction things are going/may go and that knowledge helps me feel more empowered. Keep up the great work!
Yes, Barry, I also greatly value Ruth’s Big Picture perspective which creates greater clarity .... and just as important, reminds us, that we are not powerless, and here’s how our ancestors resisted tyranny in the past, and how our sisters and brothers are doing so, now.
It gives me strength and comfort when I think of our ancestors. "They're the guardians of us and we're the guardians of their legacy." -- President Joe Biden, May 30, 2021
Yes, indeed, I always seem to need Ruth's (and geo-strategist Peter Zeihan's) immeasurable "big picture" beacons of light to help guide me as an economist with a strong/broad social science framework/instinct -- to nudge and prompt me! I'm trying to examine more "strategic" (long-run) rather than "tactical" (short-run) factors within this current experience/process that can possibly serve as a guide (although they may very well influence each other). Still working.....
Diane thanks for pulling out those concepts of threads for thought i.e. strategic/ long-run and the tactical/ short-fun factors. Problems are so complex they are like a prism, each angle can be valuable.
Thanks, Jan, for this insightful thread with Diane!
As Art was saying, the Baltic Countries are asking for more NATO forces on the border with Belarus, and he says the “Baltics know, more than anyone, not to trust the lies or publicity circus of Putin, Prizoghin and Lukashenko.” [Today the President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda announced that he arrived in Kyiv ahead of the Vilnius Summit with the main message: "Ukraine's place is in NATO!"]
Also, the Ukrainians are rightfully secretive in their current offensive strategic plans, but as Ruth writes, “letting Prigozhin live peacefully in Belarus, even if he is used in some fashion for the cause of defeating Ukraine, would be an exception to authoritarian history and out of keeping with Putin's character.” Which seems likely to be happening.
Peter Zeihan provided some insights yesterday on the progress of the Ukrainian counter-offensive on the frontlines particularly on the “Zaporizhzhia Front.” The focus of the Ukrainian counter-offensive has been to find a weakness along the Zaporizhzhia Front to breakthrough and then make their way to the Sea of Azov where they (the Ukrainians) can isolate the entire Southeastern front and Crimea! If the Ukrainians can achieve this, there would no longer be a land bridge between Russia and Crimea for supplies and materials, and the Ukrainians would be able to target the “Kerch Strait Bridge” directly!
In terms of what the Ukrainians are up against in their counter-offensive strategy, there are defensive lines of “dragon's teeth” that were constructed in Oct 2022 under the Wagner Group along the Southeastern front. Dragon teeth defenses, I have learned, are a type of fortification from the German “Drachezahne” which are square and pyramidal shaped anti-tank obstacles of reinforced concrete first used in WWII. However, the dragon’s teeth are only one part of the Russian defenses in Southeastern Kherson Oblast which also includes minefields, anti-tank ditches, and trenches. Many Belarus firms have supplied dragon’s teeth for the Russians.
Anyway, within the current Ukrainian counter-offensive the Ukrainians haven’t been able to get past the minefields, and then after that the second line of defensive that includes the dragon’s teeth and trenches. The Ukrainians are still actively looking for weaknesses within the Zaporizhzhia Front to enable them to breakthrough. But now Peter Zeihan said yesterday that there has been shift within the Ukrainian strategy allowing them to target their missiles on “ammunition dumps” rather than just the “command and control systems.” [Note: “An ammunition dump, ammunition supply point (ASP), ammunition handling area (AHA) or ammunition depot is a military storage facility for live ammunition and explosives.”]
Peter Zeihan says that this is significant as it is an indication that the Ukrainians are getting to the second phase of their counter-offensive strategy operations. When you get to that phase you (the Ukrainians) are ensuring that the Russians can’t get meaningful supplies to the front!
I wish more citizens appreciated historical perspectives. I don't think we be this deep into the problem, if more people sought out this type of historical knowledge. Thank you Ruth for all these deep dives so we can try to share more broadly, in our communities. Support public education, libraries and free speech & print.
Thank you, Ruth! Wonderful commentary on the current situation with your brilliant insights into Putin’s
power. I believe this challenge to Russia’s stability has brought him very close to the brink of losing it all. He is finally running out of escapes.
Too soon and unclear to speculate
on how his power will change: coup, abdication, illness or death, the world will have to wait and see.
Hmmmmm….. perhaps Putin’s multibillion dollar Palace, complete with underground hockey stadium and gold toilet bowl brushes- that has been the cause of major dissatisfaction and
protests by the people of Russia will become the new “Disneyland of Siberia”.
Oh well! A bit of macabre humor! Hope Ruth can give us some insights into an emerging future leader of the Russian presidency. Or maybe it’s time for a “Russian Spring” to occur. (Remember the Arab Spring of years past?)
His fall could not come quick enough, and couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. Having said that, who would take over? Another Putin? Or someone worse? A new, slicker version of Joe Stalin, who will bring back the military uniform and Jack boots, all designed by top Paris fashion designers for modern take on authoritarian ruler fashion?Someone smarter, stronger, faster, the 6 million ruble man? One thing is for certain this whole invasion of Ukraine is his Putin’s own disaster, and if it is his undoing, he did it to himself. Should he make it through this, he will not live forever, something that happens to us all. With Russia, it is all ways the worst is yet to come, and you can never trust them, the Government is always up to no good.
Thank you for another insightful article!
Here is to hoping as the goons fight over the throne, some better leadership can somehow emerge. If there is going to be a period of jockeying and infighting among factions, perhaps such a transition can register some dissent that would push reforms? Its hard to see how liberal revolution occurs without piercing the information monopoly. I fear the West is letting Putin dictate our messaging in Central Asia or lack of it, even though Russia has not been shy about tinkering within our information ecosystem.
This is our golden opportunity to take informational warfare to Russia, imo. - EuroKremlin 2024 or 2025 would be the best possible outcome. The proof is in the pudding - liberal Ukraine is out punching autocratic, hallowed out Russia - liberality is more effective, efficient and secure. The Russian people should hear about it.
Strategic timing re: informational warfare.
As was just the case, someone like Prigozhin will have to be the spear that pierces Putin's propaganda created aura of omnipotence. No doubt recent events have altered perceptions of Putin. The worst thing that can happen to a strongman is to be seen as weak. If and when another attack or threat comes, it will most likely be from elite elements within the military apparatus. In the meantime, a smart, calculated and paranoid, Putin will crack down hard domestically and abroad. As with all dictators and strongmen, Putin will learn sooner or later, the mandate from heaven is not forever.
Another great article. I think that Lukashenko made a big mistake by agreeing to allow Prighoshin refuge in Belarus. What's to stop him from getting rid of Lukashenko and taking control of Belarus? That would really make things interesting.
Can Prighoshin trust Lukashenko, who is Putin's puppet? If I'm Prighoshin in Lukashenko's Belarus, I will be looking over my my shoulder all the time. Can it be long until someone tries to take me out or make me disappear. Will he be allowed to roam free protected by his Wagner army inside Belarus?
Putin and Prigozin’s are old friends from St Oetersberg. I think Prigozin was trying to help Putin by challenging the defense minister and generals to get them out of the way. There could be more friction among these three camps, the military, the mercenary, and the old KGB/FSB.
I think Lushenko does what Putin tells him.
Yes exactly
There's just a lot more to this story obviously that went on behind the scenes that we have yet to learn.
I see Wager as this amped up Russian Mafia used by Putin’s FSB/old guard KGB. For decades the political establishment in Russia relied on the Russian Mafia to do their dirty work inside and outside Russia. On one level, Wager is modeled after BLACKWATER, a ‘professional’ security force. This was necessary for the larger roles outside the shrinking Iron Curtain, and in Ukraine, Syria, and Africa, maybe it’s a way to keep Belarus in the sphere because Lusashenko’s health is failing. The Russians can’t afford an uprising in Belarus like what had happened in Ukraine. These are just my own speculation. Or maybe Prigozin is just an idiot gangster naively thinking he could actually depose a Defense Minister on his own?
Again, there's just so much about this whole story that we just don't know yet??
I was struck by the strong similarity of the 2013 quote from Putin that you provided and Trump’s inaugural speech. It's like they shared a speechwriter!
Paul Manafort??
Bingo. Manafort taught the Russians some things, and they taught him some things.
What I worry about now, is who would step into Putin’s place ? It seems likely that chaos would ensue, and who then would take responsibility for all the massive amounts of nuclear weapons . It seems unlikely that the Oligarchs would want to shoe in Navalny……
Oligarchs are Putin’s handpicked trustees. They won’t turn to Navalny. There has never been a succession plan in Russia in its history, so eventually it’s going to get messy.
I don’t speak Russian, but Putin’s recent speeches about Wager mutiny, he seemed visibly upset. Frazzled even.
Thank you Ruth for this insightful essay. The gaming terms 'playbook', 'party plays their hand', 'the odds are good' helps me visualize concepts easier.