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Question Ruth, as the autocrat's war effort stalls and meanders with no victory in sight do the chances that the autocrat may use battlefield nukes increase?

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Not likely. Read Synder's Substack on this.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/nuclear-war

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Sadly Gary...I really think Bidens naivety and genuine fondness for Putin is clouding his judgement. Joe does NOT want to go in for the kill....it'll upset the apple cart. Typical moderate Democrat. If FDR thought like this we'd have lost WWII

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Feb 21, 2023·edited Feb 21, 2023

Sorry Doug...you've lost me at "genuine fondness for Putin".

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Maybe Joe is just diplomatic but I get impression there might be an undeserved respect....I could be wrong. I've been jaded by DTs affect of hurling insults at.people! 😂...to prove his disdain.

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Biden could have fired WRAY & GARLAND years ago-- they appear to do anything not to hold traitors at highest levels accountable.

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Feb 21, 2023·edited Feb 21, 2023

Yes I read Tim Snyder a couple weeks ago on that. But under Ruth's perspective of the autocrat is the calculation the same? Maybe Ruth will weigh in on this?

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I don't see the logic changing from either perspective, they are similar if not the same. Defeat the Russian Army by conventional means. Precision can beat mass but takes time to scale up. Ukraine gave up space, biding for time. I wouldn't want to be sitting in a Russian tank in Eastern Ukraine anytime this spring because St. Javellin is coming.

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Just to clarify my own position. I think talk of Putin using a battle field nuke is a fear tactic and part of Russian propaganda aimed at deterring NATO from sending ever more sophisticated and deadly armaments into the region.

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Agree. I don’t know if I would have come to that conclusion as easily without Dr. Snyder’s essay. He really cleared up the murkiness and fear for me.

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Feb 21, 2023·edited Feb 21, 2023

Autocrats and strongmen when humiliated and desperate may engage in what Political scientists call 'Gambling for Resurrection'. So maybe the question could be worded a bit different.

He has badly miscalculated and his costly war of aggression in Ukraine is failing, so would a strongman like Putin ever use a battlefield nuke if desperate enough and backed into a corner to gamble for resurrection?

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It is very possible, if Putin is a psychopath/sociopath because these people view themselves as perfect and God-like. They have no remorse about causing pain in others, in fact they tend to be sadistic. They also have no conscience. Putin might want to use these weapons but let's hope there is someone in his circle that can stop him.

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What is the Chinese curse or saying, " May you live in interesting times."

I think using one in Ukraine would elminate him from ever stepping outside Russia. It would make him a pariah, the worst man in the world. The west would sieze every dime of Russian money held around the world that hasnt already been siezed ( I think this is almost 1/2 trillion or so already, much of this is what Putin has stolen from the resource industries, thus many oligarchs would defect as they could never again do business outside the country. There would be a million in St. Petersburg Square protesting...if the fall out doesnt track east or northeast keeping them in their basements. Prevailing winds make it suicide for a 1/3 of his own population. His legacy would be more like Hilter or Stalin and not Peter the Great. NATO would enter the war and eliminate the Russian Navy, Air Force, the remaining Russian Army (not killed by the fall out) would be vaporized by Nato airstrikes. Understanding this, I think the Generals,would not follow the launch order, and stage a coup with the help of the Inteligenisa, and Oligarchs ( this might already be planned and why so many have suffered demise by suddenly falling out of their apartment windows.

What would he strike? The east, so close to his own border troops, bases, and own population and manufacturing centers? Close to his Black Sea residnece? Or Kiev so close to Belarus? How would the people in Belarus repsond? Or Western Ukraine, close to the EU Borders? Putin is not stupid, any nuc would be more than stupid. Oh, to have ears in the Kremlin right now would be really something. Too bad the highest ranking Kremlin spy ever was covertly extracted by the CIA in 2017.

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There’s two sides to this, however.

Its pretty clear that nuclear war will be devastating to the Russian homeland, which is not threatened at all currently. Its not like the Russian chain of command is oblivious to this. If Putin is losing his grip on power, ordering a nuclear strike might be a precipitating event for his replacement. Might not, but might.

This is yet another reason Biden must not act in any way that plays into Putin’s bullshit about being threatened militarily. Russia is not threatened by NATO. It is Putin’s autocratic rule that is threatened just by the presence of.nearby freedom. EuroMaidan bucked his pawn Yanukovych, and the presence of a highly functional democratic nation on its border is an existential threat to Putin and gang. If EuroKremlin were to remove Putin and his cronies, they would most surely be jailed at least. But the “cleansing” he is speaking about is propaganda to try to con Russia into believing anyone who may have dissented has left already, so dissenters remain low in spirit, less likely to try to organize

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how does Biden and other world leaders not know this?

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I support Ruth's position on the war at this time. And I am aware of the position of those who point out that the western powers, the US and the UK, opposed solutions to the conflict proposed early on, in order to "weaken Russia." Also, CIA head, Bill Burns, gave early warnings against the expansion of NATO. The imperial project of the U.S. has driven this war. For me, for us, the difficult part is stopping the military-industrial-congressional complex which would, for example, modernize nuclear weapons, build nuclear submarines, to support never-can-be-used systems. We encircle China. We would not allow Chinese bases in Mexico. I don't know what to do.

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Mexicans do not want Chinese bases in Mexico anymore than Americans do.

There is in Ukraine a generation of young people who never lived behind the Iron Curtain like their parents and grandparents were forced to. They know their elder's stories of oppression, corruption, and kleptocracy. It was the young people that stood up to Yanokovitch, occupied the Maidan Square, and forced him to flee to Russia. They choose democracy and to live as free people in a free country. Naturally they lean towards the EU and the west and aspire that type of political system for themselves and for the future of their children.

Democracy on the border of Russia? This is dangerous for Putin. What if the Russian people get wind of this? What if the Russian people decide they have had enough of Putin and Authoriatiran Kleptocracy? Once Ukraine wins, Belarus is probably next. Maybe one of the 'Stans or Caucaus countries? A cascade of democracy spreading east. This has been the general trend since WW2. Putin is paranoid of these scenarios.

Self determination, the rule of law, free and fair elections, participation in the global creative & service economy, integration and cooperative economies. Respect for national boarders. I think that is what the majority of Ukrainians are fighting for.

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Yeah, Putin wants to take all those in his control, back to more feudal times, just like the fascist leaders before him wanted. Authoritarians love that king/ peasant relationship. In our modern times, this is so obsolete but there is always some psychopathic leader that needs to be worshiped. It's all about dominace and submission.

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I think he will get pushed back out of Ukraine in the coming months. Without a land bridge to Crimea, he pulls out of there too. He will set up his remaining artillery behind the Russian border and fire shells and drone attacks where Ukraine wont dare to attack. He will use the Navy to fire cruise missles at Ukrainian cities. If that happens, how does NATO respond?

Just now, Right on que, Putin just gave a speech "suspending" nuclear arms treaties and participation. To think that one person could threaten the entire world with nuclear weapons....hmmmm. I dont see things ending well for Mr. Putin.

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-update-russias-elite-ukraine-war-major-speech-2023-02-21/

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I agree that Putin will pull back in the coming months. Why does one threaten others with nuclear weapons? Machiavellianism/ narcissism/ psychopathy/sadism--- The Dark Tetrad Personality. It's the foundation that fascism is built upon.

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Poignant piece Ruth! America is walking a fine line in the rules of engagement, however there a many highly technical weapons that would be helpful to Ukraine, there usage wouldn’t necessarily create a WWIII scenario.

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Thought this was interesting. Why keep a defense minister/general in charge who keeps losing in Ukraine? Becuase he is one who helped put Putin in power.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-defence-chief-keeps-job-despite-ukraine-routs-thanks-putin-2023-02-20/

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Thank you Ruth!

Ensuring Russia pays a maximum, ongoing price for this aggression is absolutely critical in preventing further breakdown of international order. I was so pleased to see our President demonstrating our resolve and support for Ukraine in his surprise visit to Kiev on President’s Day.

Feels so nice to be proud of our leadership once in a while!

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Words are cheap....Biden needs to provide F16s....Biden is assuring a stalemate with his foot dragging moderation. Will it stop China from supplying weapons to Russia? No...a 'World War' is inevitable. The American fascists are attempting to sabotage military aid to Ukraine. Let's supply our ally end this before Winter of '23....tick tock!

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I don’t disagree with further aid in the form of jets and airpower. However, it is also critical Biden and the West display considerable reluctance to escalate the conflict so as not to play into Putin’s messaging about Russia being threatened and/or at war with NATO. Russia must be the clear aggressor and escalator in the conflict, to keep our domestic support strong and the NATO alliance intact - the US must continue to play a supporting role in assisting Ukraine in its own defense, rather than an aggressive one seeking to destroy Russia using Ukraine as a tool.

My $0.02, we are already in world war. And its most critical Biden protects our domestic politics and holds the NATO alliance together as these control the security forces upholding rules based world order. The primary fronts of WW3 are our elections, and if we are corrupted to the point of incompetence or civil war, the autocrats will run away with the world order.

https://radmod.substack.com/p/clearly-defining-putins-hybrid-wwiii

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We have seen support for Ukraine by many countries, including Japan, with a $5.5 billion contribution. The reason for this is their dispute with Russia over islands north of Japan. They view Russia as an aggressor, just like many European nations do. The US aid to Ukraine is not unilateral.

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The purification comment by Tsar Vladimir is interesting. Lenin, Stalin, and other Communist leaders from the past rationalized terror through the same. Some things never change.

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Putin has his pro-war propaganda and so did the US in the run up to the Vietnam war. Our leaders had to make an excuse to attack Vietnam; they had to "sell" the war, and they did. Paranoia was used in the form of the Domino Theory. Dissent was squashed, as we saw at Kent State in Ohio. Putin is also squashing dissent about Ukraine, although in a much more authoritarian manner than in the US.

Imperialism is never a national virtue for any country. It shows a national hubris and a national chauvinism that is condescending toward other nations. In Putin's case, his actions could easily be psychopathy driven, as several psychologists have suggested this in the recent past. Much of the imperialism seen in this world has been driven by psychopathy/sociopathy/ megalomania of those in power.

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founding

I agree with Ruth in that "Until the United States and its allies give Ukraine the weapons it needs to repel the Russian invader, Putin will consider it worth his while to continue a war he thinks will put him on par with Peter the Great." .............which is right up Putin's alley and his notion of "Enlightened Absolutism" with continued authoritarianism but not of the sort where they rule for their subordinates’ well-being!

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I obviously agree with everything you write from a moral standpoint. However, it is important to remember that the weapons on both sides are bought with money from the West. Putin and his cronies did not get rich from selling oil and gas. They got rich from us buying their bloody oil and gas. Rex Tillerson was awarded the medal of freedom from Putin himself in 2012 (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/world/americas/tillersons-company-exxon-mobil-follows-its-own-foreign-policy.html) and Russian oil exports to the USA increased strongly under Putin. Thus, both Russia and Ukraine are now paying a horrible price for our mishandling of Putin and his cronies. The West should not just deliver weapons and watch as people are killed. We need to "speak firmly and carry a big stick" rather than keeping silent and distributing a lot of small sticks. This means exhausting all diplomatic channels, making clear demands on Putin, providing an exit strategy for Russia, and imposing a lot of sanctions, even if they are harmful to the West. Putin will not live forever. We obviously need exercises some damage control until he expires.

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Feb 24, 2023·edited Feb 24, 2023

I agree with much of what you say, but Putin does not want an exit strategy. And he has already shown his diplomatic agreements are empty. Sanctions? Yes. They are useful, but Putin needs to be militarily defeated and driven from all of Ukraine. Only when he knows he has no power to deceive in negotiations will a negotiated peace be possible.

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Agree with Ruth on this; and yet, if Putin is so sure of his position and support, he wouldn’t need to travel by armored train. Further, he wouldn’t have perceived allies building there own private armies. We will have to see where this goes........

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Putin needs a theme for his war. Let’s see,”Make Russia Great Again!” That’ll work. A similar one seems to work for Putin’s protege!

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Former Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor gives detail, context, thoughtful Frontline interview.

https://youtu.be/yOTx7HxVDsM

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If what Ruth is saying is true, the only solution is to hire Melania Trump to assassinate Putin. (She'll do it, if the price is right.)

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That is correct, but does he intend to use nuclear weapons?

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I see the US and allies as hesitating too much. If we are in this to win it, we need to "finish the job" at least by giving Ukraine the tools to do so!

I worry that the hesitation of the West not only allows the killing of more Ukrainians, but also the greater destrucofvits infrastructure. It feels like the appeasement policy of Neville Chamberlain, and we know that led to no good!

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The problem I have is that Ukraine is being helped in the same way as South Vietnam in the 60s. In the end, there will be lot of human suffering and ecological damage. If the Ukrainian government decides to recapture all its territory, there will be half a million dead, enormous ecological damage, and significant risk of nuclear escalation. In the end, Ukraine will have obtained a lifeless wasteland. Unfortunately, the USA has a long habit of reckless behavior and misguided military interventions: Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, the Kurds, ... However, it the West really wanted to help Ukraine, there is an easy way to do so. We need to crash the global oil market by introducing a lookdown more severe than anything seen during the Covid pandemic. By closing all airports and rationing fossil fuels, it should be possible to significantly reduce the price of oil. Without oil, the Russian oiligarchy (pun intended) would collapse, together with Saudi Arabia. This is the sad truth: if you fly or fill up your car, you support Putin. Are we prepared to sacrifice global capitalism to help the Ukrainians? I certainly am.

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