17 Comments

I wish the West would confiscate Putin's money on deposit in the West and give it to Ukraine, so Ukraine could buy the weapons and ammo it needs from the US to defeat Putin.

Expand full comment

Mansur - this can be done. It is my understanding that the US currently holds a significant amount of Russian currency through sanctions and fines levied against Russian oligarchs and related entities. Since these are fines and penalties, I’m not aware of any reason the proceeds could not be “cashed” and disbursed in any way the US Treasury designates. I’m not an international finance expert - appreciate any details that can be shared on this topic.

Expand full comment

I heard the UK was working on this, but nothing lately.

Expand full comment

Lev Parnas really let the cat out of the bag on the GOP/Russia connection, didn’t he? No doubt left! Hopefully those disloyal Americans will continue to be called out! Thanks Ruth!

Expand full comment
Mar 21·edited Mar 21

Great insights as always

This squares beautifully with Russian sociologist Kamil Galeev’s ideas about violent entrepreneurs (autocrats, strongmen, mobsters) and non-violent entrepreneurs. The violent autocrats eventually will plunder everything from the nonviolent unless the violent ones are continually removed . This creates a dynamic where innovation is totally disincentivized. What remains lucrative is natural resources and established essentials.

And if you want to expand such an economy, you need more resources and non-violent entrepreneurs to plunder. So this is why Russia’s Wagner group is causing trouble in central Africa, plundering gold, in exchange for propping up the strongman of the month.

One piece of this that gets often lost imo - when people say “Russia won’t stop at Ukraine” they often fail to convey that Ukraine’s resources (and strategic location) would also strengthen Russia in a huge way. There seems to be a sense that Russia’s invasion has been costly and it has. But given a few years to recover, Russia would be far more dangerous with the benefit of Ukraine’s riches.

Expand full comment

Agreed. Ukraine’s resources are desirable; key aim.

Expand full comment

In 1997, Putin was the PM of Russia and destined to be the 2nd President within a short period of time. This was the same year that the book called Foundations of Geopolitics was published in Russia. It is a long read - over 600 pages, but it tells the whole world about Putin's intentions as the next President of Russia. His list of goals includes (I am paraphrasing) (1) destruction of the U.S. democracy, (2) abolish Ukraine, (3) befriend France and Germany, (4) return the world order to pre-NATO time, (5) BREXIT, and (6) restore Russia to it's glory days before the collapse of the USSR. It also includes instructions on the post-communist timeframe and military exercises.

Putin is a lifelong Russian secret service agent who became President. His whole life has been dedicated to the destruction of the U.S. He blames us for the downfall of the USSR and he openly wants revenge. During the USSR timeframe, other countries were under Russia's control because they placed a man in power who was loyal to the Soviet leader - who was always a Russian. Putin has groomed Trump for decades and at some point in the 2000's Trump was compromised. He has clearly demonstrated his devotion to Russia - and if he didn't, he or a member of Trump's family would die. This is how Putin operates. Keep in mind, only a few months after Trump lost the 2020 election, Ivana Trump died due to a blunt blow to her head. While Trump did his very best to tell the world this was an accident - I strongly question her death because it resembles the same type of murders conducted by Russian KGB/FSB.

TIME 100 Edition (June 2022), was dedicated to the "most influential persons of 2021-2022." It says "Influence, of course, may be for good or for ill - a dichotomy never more visible than in this year's TIME100, which describes both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky." President Biden described Zelensky, and Alexei Navalny described Putin. There are two quotes from Navalny in this edition of Time 100 that I would like to share with readers:

(1) "Perhaps Vladimir Putin's true mission is to teach lessons. To everyone - from world leaders and pundits to ordinary people. He has been especially good at this in 2022. He reminded us once again that a path that begins with 'just a little election rigging' always ends with a dictatorship." When I read this statement, all I could think of was former President Trump's call (which was taped) to Brad Raffensperger (R) the Secretary of State for Georgia pressuring him to 'just find 11,780 votes' in order to overturn the GA election. If this is not election rigging, I am not sure what is.

(2) Navalny goes on to say "World leaders have hypocritically talked for years about a 'pragmatic approach' and the benefits of international trade. (My thought: This is because the World and the U.S. thought that the Cold War was over and we were living in global peaceful co-existence - a huge mistake.) In so doing, they enabled themselves to benefit from Russian oil and gas while Putin's grip on (international) power grew stronger. Between sanctions and military and economic aid, this war (with Ukraine) will cost hundreds of times more than these lucrative oil and gas contracts, the signing of which used to be celebrated with champagne."

As most of you know, Alexei Navalny was the Russian foremost presidential opposition leader until Putin first poisoned him and then imprisoned him and then murdered him in an inhumane gulag in Siberia. While Navalny himself decided to return to Russia after recouping in Germany from his near-fatal poisoning, our entire global community is responsible for his death. Let's be clear and honest for a change - Putin is a ruthless, blood-thirsty dictator - often compared to Stalin who murdered over 20 million humans. Our world is not living in peaceful co-existence and little has changed over 75 years.

The United States and other democratic countries have imposed sanctions on Russia that would normally cripple any thriving nation. These sanctions have not worked and will not deter Putin. The West and especially our country naively believed that the Cold war had ended and the West had won. This was a critical and momentous mistake. I was living in Russia during this timeframe, and have been repeating since 1993 that the Cold War DID NOT END. Having lived under the oppressive orthodoxy of Communism and having witnessed numerous frightening lessons on how Soviet/Russia official egoism and bureaucracy works, I understood that sanctions on influential and wealthy Russians - the oligarchs - has NO impact on Putin - yet the sanctions continue. Of course, Biden has few options - and Putin knows this. It is all out war against Putin and Russia or it is sanctions. I doubt that Biden will wage war, at least not before the 2024 election.

In 2004, the Beslan School incident was a shock to most Russians. Briefly, Chechen rebels held more than 1,100 hostages in an attempt to convince Putin to withdraw his troops from Chechnya. Putin refused to back down and he solved this issue by bombing the school. A total of 186 Russian children died as well as hundreds of Russian adults. Because Russian families, at that time, only had one child, all Russian children were/are normally highly protected and safeguarded. A Russian named Illarionov was Putin's economic advisor at the time. Because he could not bare the thought of these children's violent deaths , Illarionov left Russia and moved to the U.S. The following is a quote from him to the American people: "One of the greatest misconceptions in the West and in the United States is the role of the so-called Oligarchs in the Russian economy and its political system. These roles are next to zero. I've heard so much through all these years about the oligarchs, about how important it is to put sanctions on them . . . (thinking this will in turn influence Putin). If you would like to make life miserable for these people, it's OK. But if you think these sanctions would make changes in the decision-making process of Mr. Putin or the Kremlin, it's wrong. It's a mistake. The political regime in Russia is not like the United States . . . it is not a democracy. .and not even an authoritarian regime. . . Right now, it is a one-man show. You can punish 145 million Russians and it will not change the decision-making process of Putin. It has been Putin's dream for decades to destroy Ukraine.. . . His goal is to not stop in Ukraine, his goal is to move into Europe.. . Ukraine is just his testing ground. . . The West may not want to be at war with Russia, but they also may have NO CHOICE." He goes on to ask the West "How long should we (the U.S. and the world) tolerate the endless spiral of deaths produced by one person?" In Ukraine, Putin has targeted non-military targets - hospitals, schools, and apartment buildings. Thousands upon thousands of innocent people have died. How long can we watch and tolerate this human carnage without our own souls crying out in pain?

We live in a country where the "rule of law" and not the "rule of one person" has governed. If Trump is re-elected, our democracy may die because this is a corrupt man who thinks only of himself. We also have half our country believing that Trump is a decent human being. They have ignored his six business bankruptcies, his 91 criminal charges, his convictions of both fraud and rape, his instigation of a violent insurrection against the legal transfer of power, and perhaps most importantly his obvious dedication to Vladimir Putin and Russia. In reality, this relationship is nothing more than subjugation of a stupid American who was caught in a typical Russian/KGB's trap. I know this process well and was subjected to the Russian "wining and dining" often. I was told that because I speak Russian, but had an American passport, that I could go into the U.S. Embassy and be useful to Russia.

The real problem our nation faces in this coming election, is the enormous number of voters who have succumbed to Trump's form of coercive mind manipulation. Brainwashing began in totalitarian countries 100 years ago, and has been widely used in dictator-led countries. Hitler converted an entire peaceful society/nation into mass murderers. He tortured and killed over 6 million people and perhaps another million died on the battle fields trying to stop him. He turned families and neighbors against each other, and he used speeches filled with repetitive lies, fear, threats and hatred. If this sounds familiar it is because Trump - a candidate for the Presidency of the United States - has used these same mass mind manipulation tools. There are ways to combat and detox brainwashed individuals - but this post is already too long.

I am very opinionated on this subject, so I apologize for the length of this message.

Elizabeth

Expand full comment

Thank you, Elizabeth. I had long thought that Putin's actions including the interference in US elections and the invasion of Ukraine were a continuation of the Cold War. But that was based on my take on the news and commentators such as Ruth as opposed to hard knowledge of how Putin operates. After all, Putin knows he can't go against the US military directly, so he uses other means. And people in the US have never experienced authoritarianism, so we don't recognize the warning signs. I clicked on your link and signed up to your Substack to learn more.

Expand full comment

Hi Ellen: Thanks for joining my Substack. I need to do some basic cleanup tasks and enter some of the other posts that I have written.

Warm wishes, Elizabeth

Expand full comment

Biden needs to put US troops in the Baltic states sooner rather than later.

Expand full comment

I always appreciate your clear and lucid essays. You have the expertise and the will to give us truth. It seems strange to me that America and democrats seem so unable to do various things that could be done to at least loosen the stranglehold the gops and Trump have on so much here at home. There aren't that many of them. I don't think they'll win the big election. They plan to seize power any way they can, using any dirty trickery they can come up with. I surely hope those who can, will prepare to stop them. We need to help Ukraine any way we are able. I admire the Ukrainians so much. Ruthie B

Expand full comment

Thank you for this post Prof Ruth. Surely if nothing is new under the sun, it sure is corruption and "follow the money"

And so would it be correct to regard the present global moment as a struggle for world dominance as democracies versus the Petro-Oligarchs?

I think so.

Expand full comment
founding

[This is related to our guest speaker next week March 29 at 1pm: Jeff Goodall author of “The Heat Will Kill You First”……I wrote this last summer when I read the book and was increasingly concerned about climate change after teaching a course on the economics of aspects of climate change]

The Dangers of Extreme Heat within Climate Transformation

A UN Climate Change Report found that the earth could go beyond a treacherous threshold in the next decade that could make climate change disaster SO EXTREME we will not be able to adapt unless urgent action is taken to reduce carbon emissions. Concentrations of carbon emissions in the atmosphere are at their highest levels in more than two million years and the temperature rate over the last half a century is the highest in 2,000 years.

The impacts of the climate crisis continue to fall hardest on the poorer and more vulnerable countries of the world. “Our planet is already reeling from severe climate impacts, from scorching heat waves and destructive storms to severe droughts and water shortages,” said Ani Dasgupta, president and CEO of World Resources Institute, in a statement.

The biggest threat to climate change action is the world’s continued compulsion to burning fossil fuels, which still make up more than 80 percent of the world’s energy and 75 percent of the world’s extreme heating pollution! Jeff Goodell has just written a book entitled, “The Heat will Kill You First: Life and Death on the Scorched Planet” and describes extreme heat as the primary threat that drives all other impacts of the Climate Crisis.  As we burn fossil fuels and fill the atmosphere with CO2, we are raising the temperature of the earth which is driving all other climate impacts such as:

**Wild Fires.

**Droughts.

**Rising Sea Levels.

Heat is the primary driver for these climate transformation effects. It is this extreme heat force that is drastically changing our environment and the way we are being forced to live. For example, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has just signed the merciless Texas House Bill 2127 that eliminates mandatory water breaks for construction workers. The bill prevents municipal levels of governments from saying to employers that under extreme weather conditions such as extreme heat, you can’t be mandated to provide water breaks. Currently, in Texas one construction worker dies every three days, and in fact, more workers die in Texas from extreme heat than any other state in the US!

What happens to our bodies when heat rises above 107 degrees fahrenheit? Jeff Goodell tells us:

“As the heat rises, the proteins unfold and the bonds that keep the structures together break. At the most fundamental level, your body unravels [….] Your insides melt and disintegrate – you are hemorrhaging everywhere.”

We only have one mechanism to get cooler and that is to “sweat.” When it gets hotter our heart pumps faster and pushes blood away from our internal organs and brains which is why when one gets extremely hot they can get light-headed and very dizzy.  All of this puts a massive strain on the human heart. Thus, when your body can’t sweat enough the membranes of your cells begin to melt. The human body sweats to cool itself when exposed to high temperatures. But in humid conditions, sweat does not evaporate as quickly and the body’s ability to cool itself is compromised. Heat stress can result and, if not addressed, can lead to heat-related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke. 

Expand full comment

Excellent analysis, as usual. Thank you, Dr. Ben-Ghiat.

Expand full comment

Sat, Mar 23 at 5:59 AM

It was only yesterday that the news reported that "these gunmen in the Moscow terrorist attack were ISIS and from Afghanistan." (CNN) It now appears that Putin plans to blame Ukraine for this terrorist attack because he was quoted as saying "the gunmen were found near the western border of Russia - the area near Ukraine." (Reuters)

In the early days of Putin's reign (he was the PM in 1999) and when he "wanted" to blame Chechen rebels for attacks on Russia, several apartment buildings were blown up in various Russian cities including Moscow. These bombings triggered the Second Chechen War. Over 300 Russians were killed in these apartment buildings and many more injured. (Wikipedia) His handling of these bombings helped Putin's popularity - by making him appear to be a strong leader - and swept him into the Presidency in 2000.

However, the Russian Duma Speaker Seleznyov made an announcement in the Duma saying he received a report about another bombing in the city of Volgodonsk. A bombing did happen in Volgodonsk - but three days later. Again, Chechen militants were blamed but they denied responsibility along with the Chechen President. (Wikipedia)

I was living in Moscow at this time, and the rumor was that Putin had staged these bombings and killings solely for the appearance and to make his popularity improve during his first few years as the President. He continued to blame and attack Chechnya and many souls died.

The Crocus City Hall in Moscow - the location of this so-called terrorist attack - is owned and operated by Aras Agalarov. This was the location of the Miss Universe Contest held by Donald Trump who partnered with Agalarov. If you think Donald Trump does not have strong ties to Russian mafia - you are wrong. I am speculating, but perhaps Agalarov agreed to give Trump the money to cover his $454M fine for the NY fraud case. This might make Putin angry - since he is fanatical about control - like all dictators worldwide.

Elizabeth Graham

http://www.democrazy2020.org

Expand full comment

It was only yesterday that the news reported that "these gunmen in the Moscow terrorist attack were ISIS and from Afghanistan." (CNN) It now appears that Putin plans to blame Ukraine for this terrorist attack because he was quoted as saying "the gunmen were found near the western border of Russia - the area near Ukraine." (Reuters) In the early days of Putin's reign (he was the PM in 1999) and when he "wanted" to blame Chechen rebels for attacks on Russia, several apartment buildings were blown up in various Russian cities including Moscow. These bombings triggered the Second Chechen War. Over 300 Russians were killed in these apartment buildings and many more injured. (Wikipedia) His handling of these bombings helped Putin's popularity and swept him into the Presidency in 2000.

However, the Russian Duma Speaker Seleznyov made an announcement in the Duma saying he received a report about another bombing in the city of Volgodonsk. A bombing did happen in Volgodonsk - but three days later. Again, Chechen militants were blamed but they denied responsibility along with the Chechen President. (Wikipedia)

I was living in Moscow at this time, and the rumor was that Putin had staged these bombings and killings solely for the appearance and to make his popularity improve during his first few years as the President. He continued to blame and attack Chechnya and many souls died.

The Crocus City Hall in Moscow - the location of this so-called terrorist attack - is owned and operated by Aras Agalarov. This was the location of the Miss Universe Contest held by Donald Trump who partnered with Agalarov. If you think Donald Trump does not have strong ties to Russian mafia - you are wrong.

Elizabeth Graham

http://www.democrazy2020.org

Expand full comment