2022 has left much more lasting marks than most, thanks to the war on Ukraine, the bursting of the China myth and the realisation of the risks of World War Three surrounding Taiwan.
Omitted by Bill Emmett is China's suppression of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. (See the book, Surveillance State, by Josh Chin and Liza Lin) Prior to this is the already accomplished suppression of Tibet. Both places are on the same land mass as China. Taiwan is an island. Pentagon war games show China wins a war over Taiwan. We know from another book, The One Hundred Year Marathon (by Michael Pillsbury), of China's intention to overtake the US. Let us hope the existential interest of survival for all allows the US and China to cooperate more than to compete.
Thanks for sharing Bill Emmett's writing. I'm curious why he thinks China/Taiwan is more of a nuclear risk than the current, giant battlefield of Ukraine/Russia. Are we (the big we) not looking closely enough or just hoping for the best, like we did while R built up hundreds of thousands of troops on Ukraine' border a year ago?
When will China overtake the US as the world’s largest economy? Probably “never” for several reasons. But apart from what Bill Emmott is writing in his essay that is absolutely true, the “Chinese economy is now interacting with a demographic trend of an ageing and shrinking population to make projections of future growth highly uncertain.” According to geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan there is something much more current involving Russia and Ukraine and a strategy they have where Russia would go for Ukraine while China would go for Taiwan very soon. However, this is not working out so well and is based on the following assumptions that are FALSE and are also not working out so well according to Peter Zeihan:
[False Assumption 1] The war in Ukraine would be quick. And Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion for 60 years.
[False Assumption 2] China would be able to take over the semi-conductor industry within Taiwan and then become the most powerful semi-conductor country in the world. But China is only fairly good at producing the low-end semi-conductors according to Pere Zeihan, and they also don’t have the workforce and supply chain parts needed.
[False Assumption 3] China is the largest importer of everything especially the imports needed to grow food which means that if the same sanctions were placed on China as are placed on Russia, China would have a de-industrialization system in less than a year! Wow!
Everything about China’s economy is constructed on huge volumes of imports, huge volumes of exports, technology transfers, and foreign markets! And without global foreign corporate cooperation with the Chinese economy, Peter Zeihan says the is no Chinese economy!
Meilleurs Voeux in 2023 and thank you for the amazing friendship!!
I had started running a mile in my neighborhood (as I have more time with that route these days) before the beginning of the New Year so it will be hopefully integrated into my usual routine once my classes start – and so far, so good! But this morning I got my bike out and filled the tires with air to go around the long block (3 miles) as an actual new resolution!!!
To win in Ukraine, to win vs China and Russia, and to secure Democracy around the world and at home, we have to start taking the information war more seriously.
Thanks for the timely introduction (for me!) to Bill Emmott’s clear and insightful writing and thinking!!
Ruth, here’s to a Happy New Year!
Regarding Ukraine, "Western resolve is likely to remain strong because there really is no alternative." One of the best sentences I've read all year.
Omitted by Bill Emmett is China's suppression of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. (See the book, Surveillance State, by Josh Chin and Liza Lin) Prior to this is the already accomplished suppression of Tibet. Both places are on the same land mass as China. Taiwan is an island. Pentagon war games show China wins a war over Taiwan. We know from another book, The One Hundred Year Marathon (by Michael Pillsbury), of China's intention to overtake the US. Let us hope the existential interest of survival for all allows the US and China to cooperate more than to compete.
Thanks for sharing Bill Emmett's writing. I'm curious why he thinks China/Taiwan is more of a nuclear risk than the current, giant battlefield of Ukraine/Russia. Are we (the big we) not looking closely enough or just hoping for the best, like we did while R built up hundreds of thousands of troops on Ukraine' border a year ago?
And in the last paragraph, under other big changes, not a mention of rather significant changes in women's rights, in the west and the east.
Happy New Year to Everyone!!!
[2022 China Events]
When will China overtake the US as the world’s largest economy? Probably “never” for several reasons. But apart from what Bill Emmott is writing in his essay that is absolutely true, the “Chinese economy is now interacting with a demographic trend of an ageing and shrinking population to make projections of future growth highly uncertain.” According to geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan there is something much more current involving Russia and Ukraine and a strategy they have where Russia would go for Ukraine while China would go for Taiwan very soon. However, this is not working out so well and is based on the following assumptions that are FALSE and are also not working out so well according to Peter Zeihan:
[False Assumption 1] The war in Ukraine would be quick. And Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion for 60 years.
[False Assumption 2] China would be able to take over the semi-conductor industry within Taiwan and then become the most powerful semi-conductor country in the world. But China is only fairly good at producing the low-end semi-conductors according to Pere Zeihan, and they also don’t have the workforce and supply chain parts needed.
[False Assumption 3] China is the largest importer of everything especially the imports needed to grow food which means that if the same sanctions were placed on China as are placed on Russia, China would have a de-industrialization system in less than a year! Wow!
Everything about China’s economy is constructed on huge volumes of imports, huge volumes of exports, technology transfers, and foreign markets! And without global foreign corporate cooperation with the Chinese economy, Peter Zeihan says the is no Chinese economy!
Meilleurs Voeux in 2023 and thank you for the amazing friendship!!
I had started running a mile in my neighborhood (as I have more time with that route these days) before the beginning of the New Year so it will be hopefully integrated into my usual routine once my classes start – and so far, so good! But this morning I got my bike out and filled the tires with air to go around the long block (3 miles) as an actual new resolution!!!
To win in Ukraine, to win vs China and Russia, and to secure Democracy around the world and at home, we have to start taking the information war more seriously.