Who Benefits from the U.S.-Israel War on Iran?
The war will eventually backfire on Trump and Netanyahu, while Putin profits
“There seems to be no endgame,” said Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal. “The president, almost in a single breath, says it’s almost done, and at the same time, it’s just begun. So this is kind of contradictory.” Sen. Blumenthal is among the Senate Democrats who are calling for public hearings on the war on Iran being waged by the Donald Trump administration and its ally Israel.
There may seem to be no endgame, because there was never a clear justification for starting this conflict, as I’ve discussed recently with Anne Applebaum and Timothy Snyder.
Here I consider who could benefit from this war. It’s not ordinary Iranians, who have protested in record numbers over the last years against the repression and economic hardship brought by the regime. They now find themselves with Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader, who is considered more dangerous and hardline than his father. Deathly strikes that have already killed more than 1,800, including children whose school was hit by a U.S. missile.
In the fantasy of the far right, the United States and Israel are making history and saving civilization. British commentator Melanie Phillips sees the war as “the likely birth of a new world order pivoted around that alliance between America and Israel.” By bombing Iran, America has “recovered its position as leader of the free world” while Israel “has rediscovered its biblical warrior identity and has become the regional superpower in the Middle East.”
In support of this new order, messianic Orthodox and secular nationalist Israeli ideologies meet with Christian nationalist views. Less than a week before the U.S. and Israeli strikes started, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee suggested that Israel has a biblical right to take over large swaths of the Middle East, reviving the Christian nationalist Holy War messaging that accompanied the June 2025 test strike on Iran.
The new world order will be a place where democratic legal constructs regarding war, international relations, human rights, and justice have no place. It will be a place where arrest warrants of the International Criminal Court –say, the ones issued for Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin for war crimes--have no validity, and autocrats everywhere will be protected.
Trump’s Gamble
Trump apparently thinks that he will benefit from this war. He likely felt he needed some action right now to expand his sense of power and cement his reputation. “It is well documented that strongmen are at their most dangerous when they feel threatened,” I wrote in a February 1 New York Times guest essay. “That is why, as popular discontent with the Trump administration’s actions deepens, Americans should brace for heightened militarized domestic repression and more imperialist aggression abroad.”
Cue the war on Iran, which has redirected attention from the Epstein files, the economy, and Trump’s tanking popularity, and set the stage for further consolidations of power in the name of national security, such as increased military presence at home.
Unfortunately for Trump, all of this will backfire, and set in motion events that will lead to his decline. It will likely cause the Gulf states to rethink their deals with him and perhaps even their commitment to hosting American military bases --which are now being attacked by Iran, as are American embassies and other sites.
Netanyahu’s Gamble
What about Netanyahu? The Israeli leader, too, needed a lift. In June 2025 he faced another attempt by the opposition to collapse his government through a no-confidence vote. The start of hostilities led to a surge in his popularity, due to the mistaken perception that the Iranian threat to Israel would cease. But regime change in Iran is unlikely at the moment.
Now Netanyahu is using the war on Iran as an excuse to wage war on Lebanon. Over 800,000 Lebanese have been displaced and almost 700 killed fas Israeli airstrikes and evacuation orders force civilians from their homes. Here is a Just Security analysis of the illegality of that military campaign.
Middle East expert and journalist Mohamad Bazzi sees an attempt by Netanyahu and his extreme right allies to “instigate a new sectarian conflict in Lebanon,” which would further destabilize the region.
Netanyahu will find himself in a bind. He needs U.S. firepower to realize his imperialist dreams, because the IDF is not in good shape. Eurasia Review, DW News, and other outlets have documented the damage to the IDF’s morale, psychological health, and combat readiness from operations in Gaza, which have involved soldiers in war crimes and ethnic cleansing directed at Palestinians. 19,000 Palestinian children have been killed in Gaza and 21,000 children left permanently disabled since October 2023.
In December, IDF official Tamar Shimoni stated that there was an “unprecedented” escalation in psychological cases –85,000 now—among IDF soldiers who have served in Gaza. This is not a military ready to sustain a multi-front war abroad while continuing a war of occupation.
“The U.S. is in danger of being captured by Israel’s foreign policy agenda,” wrote Trita Parsi and Marcus Stanley in September 2025. This seems truer today, not least because Israel needs the U.S. more than ever.
There is one party that will benefit from the war: Russia. As the Washington Post reported, Russia has been helping Iran to target American forces. Seven American soldiers have already died, and 140 have been injured, but this does not seem to bother Trump. In fact, rather than confront Putin, Trump is rewarding Kremlin treachery by relaxing restrictions on Russian oil exports. Energy profits fuel Putin’s kleptocracy, and his failing state needs a boost. Trump will give it to him.
As this joint war continues, Americans will have little appetite to absorb more casualties for a war that has no American national security or other rationale. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned on March 10 of potentially “catastrophic consequences” on the oil industry. Once those hit home in the form of higher energy costs, Trump will pay a price for helping foreign autocrats while bringing death and hardship to Americans.
US military industrial complex benefits big time.
Ruth congratulations on your appointment to the Kettering Foundation-a real feather in your cap.
The collusion between Trump and other gangsters (Putin, Netanyahu) is both astonishing and not surprising at the same time.