The Propaganda Points That Parallel Russia's Military Mobilization around Ukraine
But lies cannot conceal Russia's imperialism and brutality
"What sense does it make for Russia to attack anyone?...Russia throughout its history never attacked anyone...it is the last country in Europe to even utter the word war," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on Feb. 20.
As Russia builds up its war machine around Ukraine, so have propaganda narratives meant to justify the invasion accumulated. Some of these stories were used to prepare the public to accept prior imperialist aggressions, by arguing that Russian interests and safety were imperiled.
Others, like Peskov's fairy tale of Russia's innocence and its victimization by the West, are key and ongoing Kremlin talking points. Russian President Vladimir Putin featured them in his Feb. 21 speech portraying Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia.
"Quantity does have a quality all its own," write the authors of a RAND study of Russian propaganda model they call the firehose of falsehood, which sends a continuous high-volume stream of untruths and rumors out to the public.
Russia's information warfare playbook combines Communist and post-Communist methods. It cultivates an alternate reality, but also degrades the truth with an onslaught of conspiracy theories, half-truths, and fictions.
Encouraging people to feel that they can never know what's true and what's fiction comes in handy when you are an aggressor --an aggressor that already annexed a chunk of the targeted country, as Putin did with Crimea in 2014-- and you seek to fit your military operation into narratives about your country's victimization.
One narrative tradition involves explosions. No explosions had a bigger impact than the series of apartment building bombings in Moscow and other cities in 1999 that killed 300 people and helped to propel Putin into the presidency.
Putin had resigned from being head of the FSB (heir to the KGB) to run for office just three weeks before the explosions started. He was still an unfamiliar face when he appeared on television to blame the Chechens, even though the hard-to-obtain military explosive the bombs contained raised the possibility of FSB involvement.
Putin won the March 2000 elections with almost 53% of the vote. Accusations of voter intimidation and fraud anticipated his brand of governance, as did his strongman's skill at exploiting a calamity of mysterious origin.
It's unsurprising that explosions have figured in the Kremlin's current quest to depict Ukraine as a threat to Russian stability that necessitates armed action. A vehicle explosion took place Feb 18 near the headquarters of the Donetsk People's Republic (the breakaway territory inside Ukraine recognized by Putin on Feb. 22, along with Luhansk, as an independent state). Both Ukrainian and US authorities have denounced it as a false flag operation.
A second disinformation vector fabricates mass killings of ethnic Russians living in targeted areas outside of Russia to justify military action on nationalist-humanitarian grounds. In 2008, Russia claimed it was forced into war with Georgia by mass killings of Russians in South Ossetia. The supposed genocide of Russian speakers in Donbas is the 2022 version.
These propaganda campaigns fuel popular anger that ideally becomes fury when the inevitable news breaks: soldiers of the country to be invaded have attacked Russian soldiers. The first "martyrs" of each chapter of this fable of Russian victimhood at the hands of neighboring aggressors always have a special significance.
The Joe Biden administration has countered this information warfare by swiftly declassifying and releasing intelligence on future Russian operations, and by telling the public to watch for falsified video and other "evidence" of attacks against Russia.
These are smart moves that get out in front of the lies and expose the manipulation by calling attention to how, why, and when such propaganda is deployed.
Although the Orwellian rhetoric continues - the Kremlin characterizes the forces now barreling into the newly "independent" Russian puppet states inside Ukraine as "peacekeepers"-- actions, not words, will speak the truth as Russia's murderous campaign to conquer Ukraine plays out.
And no words will suffice to express the tragedy for Ukrainians as Putin tries, through violence, to make the world conform to his brutal imperialist vision.
Biden needs to express how extreme the sanctions will be. Isolating Russia from Europe and ending trade. If they invade. Freezing bank accounts. Etc. Why would Putin care? He likely would not. Others in Russia will. We have been weak with our sanctions. It has to hurt those in power.
Excellent analysis. Subsequent questions: has the GOP become a pro-Russian or Russian-enabling party? Is it time to remind the “American carnage” crowd what a real carnage regime looks like and help them fall in love with democracy again ...