The Propaganda Points That Parallel Russia's Military Mobilization around Ukraine
But lies cannot conceal Russia's imperialism and brutality
"What sense does it make for Russia to attack anyone?...Russia throughout its history never attacked anyone...it is the last country in Europe to even utter the word war," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on Feb. 20.
As Russia builds up its war machine around Ukraine, so have propaganda narratives meant to justify the invasion accumulated. Some of these stories were used to prepare the public to accept prior imperialist aggressions, by arguing that Russian interests and safety were imperiled.
Others, like Peskov's fairy tale of Russia's innocence and its victimization by the West, are key and ongoing Kremlin talking points. Russian President Vladimir Putin featured them in his Feb. 21 speech portraying Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia.
"Quantity does have a quality all its own," write the authors of a RAND study of Russian propaganda model they call the firehose of falsehood, which sends a continuous high-volume stream of untruths and rumors out to the public.
Russia's information warfare playbook combines Communist and post-Communist methods. It cultivates an alternate reality, but also degrades the truth with an onslaught of conspiracy theories, half-truths, and fictions.
Encouraging people to feel that they can never know what's true and what's fiction comes in handy when you are an aggressor --an aggressor that already annexed a chunk of the targeted country, as Putin did with Crimea in 2014-- and you seek to fit your military operation into narratives about your country's victimization.
One narrative tradition involves explosions. No explosions had a bigger impact than the series of apartment building bombings in Moscow and other cities in 1999 that killed 300 people and helped to propel Putin into the presidency.
Putin had resigned from being head of the FSB (heir to the KGB) to run for office just three weeks before the explosions started. He was still an unfamiliar face when he appeared on television to blame the Chechens, even though the hard-to-obtain military explosive the bombs contained raised the possibility of FSB involvement.
Putin won the March 2000 elections with almost 53% of the vote. Accusations of voter intimidation and fraud anticipated his brand of governance, as did his strongman's skill at exploiting a calamity of mysterious origin.
It's unsurprising that explosions have figured in the Kremlin's current quest to depict Ukraine as a threat to Russian stability that necessitates armed action. A vehicle explosion took place Feb 18 near the headquarters of the Donetsk People's Republic (the breakaway territory inside Ukraine recognized by Putin on Feb. 22, along with Luhansk, as an independent state). Both Ukrainian and US authorities have denounced it as a false flag operation.
A second disinformation vector fabricates mass killings of ethnic Russians living in targeted areas outside of Russia to justify military action on nationalist-humanitarian grounds. In 2008, Russia claimed it was forced into war with Georgia by mass killings of Russians in South Ossetia. The supposed genocide of Russian speakers in Donbas is the 2022 version.
These propaganda campaigns fuel popular anger that ideally becomes fury when the inevitable news breaks: soldiers of the country to be invaded have attacked Russian soldiers. The first "martyrs" of each chapter of this fable of Russian victimhood at the hands of neighboring aggressors always have a special significance.
The Joe Biden administration has countered this information warfare by swiftly declassifying and releasing intelligence on future Russian operations, and by telling the public to watch for falsified video and other "evidence" of attacks against Russia.
These are smart moves that get out in front of the lies and expose the manipulation by calling attention to how, why, and when such propaganda is deployed.
Although the Orwellian rhetoric continues - the Kremlin characterizes the forces now barreling into the newly "independent" Russian puppet states inside Ukraine as "peacekeepers"-- actions, not words, will speak the truth as Russia's murderous campaign to conquer Ukraine plays out.
And no words will suffice to express the tragedy for Ukrainians as Putin tries, through violence, to make the world conform to his brutal imperialist vision.
Despite the threat of impending economic sanctions, strongman Putin marches ahead with revanchist aggression against eastern Ukrane which he covers with a false narrative of lies dripping out everywhere. Repetition and saturation are essential to pounding home such outrageous propaganda. Words like fire hose and avalanche come to mind.
His calculations might include sanctions being lifted by his comrade Trump if he is returned to power in three years? God forbid if that happens, it would mean the dissolution of NATO and American leadership in the world that promotes liberal democratic values. If those two goals of Putin's are met, he will have then succeeded in creating a new system of worldwide alliances built on authoritarianism and tightly controlled autocratic states.
History is watching.
Absolutely brilliant insight as always Dr. Ben-Gait! Putin has been using the same playbook his entire career. He is a former espionage agent and the only thing he knows is to use force to achieve his goals. He has aspirations to try to reestablish the former soviet states, but does not realize that people want the ability to make their own choice in choosing their destiny and not to have it dictated to them by some two bit thug and bully! Putin and his cronies along with all of the oligarchs need to pay a hefty price for their transgressions against the Russian people and the world! Putin needs to be taken before The Hague and tried and convicted of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Ukraine is just another extension of his continuing aggression and unless he is stopped all of Europe and the world are at risk! Estimates say over 100,000 civilians could lose their lives in this Ukrainian invasion and that is not acceptable!