Heeding the Warning Signs of Creeping Authoritarianism

2017 reflections on the danger of not taking Trump seriously

Welcome back to Lucid. And a big hello to new subscribers.

One thing I learned doing the research for Strongmen was that societies around the world have gone through the same cycles of disbelief, agitation, anger and fear as things worsen. Since the loss of freedoms looks different in every place and time, we can have trouble acting preventively.

In the spirit of reflection on how we got to this point, today’s offering is a piece I wrote in October 2017 but never published. Here’s a takeaway:

Authoritarianism is not something presented to us as a fait accompli, but something we help along, step by step, by acquiescing to changes in political climates that start with pronouncements by the leader and slowly move the boundaries of what is possible.

What authoritarian ideas are being floated now by GOP politicians? Watch what they say, and take it seriously.

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How do you turn a democratic political culture into something more authoritarian? How do leaders convince people to sign on to their repressive agendas, increasing ill will toward targeted groups and disrespect for democratic norms? Since he appeared on the political scene in 2015, President Donald Trump has used one strategy to these ends: floating extreme ideas so that they enter the mainstream.

It works by introducing an idea that is reprehensible to the values of liberal democracy, framing it as an off-the cuff remark or even as a joke. Later, you can take it back, or blame others for having misheard or misinterpreted you. In the meantime, your idea has circulated to millions, sometimes even creating its own news cycle.

Some commentators want us to look only at what Trump has actually done when evaluating whether he has authoritarian tendencies, decrying as “alarmist” the focus on his threatening speech over his actual policies. Yet talking (or tweeting) is a form of action: it’s a choice to say one thing rather than another, or say nothing at all.

In talking only about policies, we also miss a key factor in the formation of authoritarian climates: How the leader’s comments can little by little instill a new vision of what might be possible and acceptable. As a professional marketer, Trump has long understood the power of suggestion. Social media’s power means it’s a short road from an off-the cuff statement to a viral tweet or meme that exposes millions to the notion.

Whether it’s Trump’s remark about the “disgusting” freedom of the press “to write whatever it wants,” or his comment made “in jest” about Vice President Mike Pence wanting to “hang gays,” he’s expanded the boundaries of public presidential language in dangerous ways. It took just two days after the latter remark for anti-LBGTQ posters to appear on college campuses and on social media showing bodies hanging from a noose.

Savvy politicians know that ideas prepare the psychological terrain for future actions. That’s why anti-democratic rulers have always “tested” allies, the public, and the media as they consolidate their power, saying things that “push the envelope” against democratic norms to the point of raising the idea of extralegal or irregular actions.

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte used this tactic during his 2015 Presidential campaign. He vowed to kill thousands of drug dealers and criminals, stating “I am telling the Filipino people not to vote for me, because it will be bloody.” Once he was elected, he reminded reporters “I am testing the elite of this country.”

It’s tempting to dismiss such declarations as bluster. Surely the politician will “calm down” eventually. We already hear about Trump "pivoting" to normalcy. In truth, the leader has little incentive to rein himself in.

Trump has used speeches and tweets to launch trial balloons for almost two years now, and in the process has changed our expectations for what an American president might say and do. One of his most revealing “testing” statements came very early on. In January 2016, Trump boasted that he could stand on Fifth Avenue and shoot someone without losing any followers.

Most Americans filed this away as “Trump being Trump,” but it was a milestone in Trump’s process of gauging the strength of our commitment to prevailing political norms. When the party rewarded him with the Republican nomination, Trump read that as license to proceed in a lawless fashion.

History shows that the best time to take such red flags seriously is before such men get into power. Once they are in office, it is hard to control the spiraling consequences of their threats.

 Authoritarianism is not something presented to us as a fait accompli, but something we help along, step by step, by acquiescing to changes in political climates that start with pronouncements by the leader and slowly move the boundaries of what is possible.

Leaders such as Trump use unsettling language to demoralize and frighten the populace and incite greater political and social polarization. Trump has shown he’s eager to help us lose our conscience and our principles: It’s up to us to let him and the GOP know we are wise to their game and will stand our ground.