Authoritarianism is not Inevitable; Modi Debacle; New Interviews & Events

And a link to the updated American Autocracy Threat Tracker

Welcome back to Lucid, and hello to all new subscribers. We had a great conversation yesterday with Dr. Alexander Stein, a psychoanalyst and consultant for businesses on fraud and corruption, about why people submit to authoritarians. I’ll be sending the video out next week.

Our next Q&A will be on Friday, June 14, 1-2pmET. If you can’t attend, on June 21, 1-2pmET, we’ll be discussing China’s domestic and foreign policies with Joanna Chiu, author of the informative book book China Unbound. A New World Disorder. And if Fridays are no good for you, the first Sunday of the month we meet at 8-9pmET.

Paying subscribers will receive links to register for these Zoom gatherings a few hours beforehand. If you’d like to join the community that has formed around these Q&As, you can sign up as a paying subscriber or upgrade to paid here:

I will be on MSNBC on Sunday 8-8:30amET on The Weekend, and on CNN on Monday at 3pmET speaking with national security correspondent Jim Sciutto. As always in TV land, this could change, but that’s the plan right now.

Here is an interview I did with Project Syndicate about authoritarianism in the US and abroad. I discuss the dysfunctions of “personalist rule” (when leaders turn parties into personal tools and their own legal and financial needs and agendas influence domestic and foreign policy).

And here is a link to the updated American Autocracy Threat Tracker which I edit along with Norm Eisen, Ryan Goodman, and others, It is hosted by Just Security.

Two Upcoming Events & Father’s Day Gift Idea:

Monday, June 10, I’ll be speaking on Zoom at Pacific Palisades Library about how growing up in the Palisades, which was home to some famous exiles from Nazism, shaped my future work. I’ll also talk about creeping authoritarianism in the US. Here is the link to the flyer with email information for registration.

And on June 23 I’ll be in conversation with NY1 anchor Errol Louis at Temple Emmanuel in Great Neck, NY. This is an in-person event and I’ll be signing copies of Strongmen as well. Here is the flyer.

Finally, this promotion for 60% off the audiobook of Strongmen landed in my inbox last week but I was too busy to share it. It’s good for the remainder of June. Strongmen is a perfect Father’s Day gift: it’s a story of how not to be a man, but also narrates the actions of fathers and sons who bravely resisted authoritarianism all over the world.

The Indian Elections Punctured Modi’s Bubble of Omnipotence

Everyone was sure that Modi would triumph in the recent Indian elections, because that’s what strongmen do —or so their personality cults tell us. Thus the defeat he was served up by Indian voters is being called a “shock election.” He secured a third term, but his BJP party will no longer have a parliamentary majority.

Some say that this is more proof of the “unpredictable nature of Indian politics,” but I prefer to give more credit to Indian voters. Some used their votes to express their opposition to Modi’s growing authoritarianism and its destructive effects on Indian society.

Authoritarians want us to think that their success is preordained by divine or secular forces and so there is no point in resisting. Submit to their glory is the message. Modi, who campaigned as a hologram in 2014 to kick off his “I am everything and you are nothing” persona, has followed this propaganda line faithfully.

On and off his Instagram account, Modi performs the personality cult dualism —he is the man of the people, and the man above all other men—with great skill.

As the BBC reported before the election: “Mr Modi…is highly visible but rarely anywhere journalists or citizens can ask him tough questions. He has never held a press conference in India since becoming prime minister, while the interviews he gives are rare - and he is rarely challenged.”

Modi has never held a press conference in India in all his years in power: that bears repeating. He prefers to be remote and untouchable, just like his hologram.

Modi appears at a rally as a hologram during this 2014 run for office. Credit: AFP

During his time in office, Modi has persecuted independent journalists, and his cronies have done Hungary and Russia-style takeovers of major media outlets; he has fanned the flames of vicious Hindu nationalism, leading to spikes in hate crimes; and pursued other anti-democratic agendas, including being a Friend Of Putin.

Indian Prime Minister Modi and Russian President Putin perform their friendship for the media, 2019.

How will Modi behave in light of this setback? The Economist tells us that “Modi could respond to disappointment in two ways. He could become more moderate and focus on the economy, or he could double down on Hindu nationalism.” But if you think like a strongman, it’s not really an either-or situation. I have zero doubt that Modi will become even more zealous about his Hindu nationalism.

Yet strongmen are transactional beings, and what they fear most is losing power. So you could see Modi make some gestures of collaboration to the opposition parties he is now forced to govern with, without actually becoming more moderate in any way.

What’s clear is that Indian voters, including some of the most marginalized people in India, did not lose faith in elections and the democratic process. They believed their vote would count and rallied to express their political choice.

And so the “shock election” happened. Never internalize the strongman’s self-serving fatalism that tells you voting doesn’t matter because the powerful will always prevail. Modi is still in office, but his authority has been tarnished, and the Indian opposition is revitalized.